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Laurence Broers Profile picture
@LaurenceBroers
Oct 3, 2020 • 12 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
How did #Armenia and #Azerbaijan get to this point? This thread brings together my short comments written April 2016-September 2020, mostly for @CHRussiaEurasia, but also @ips_journal, @OCMediaorg and @ValdaiClub. For a deeper background dive, see my book.
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment… The '4-day war' breaks out in April 2016.
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment… What needed to happen after April 2016 - and didn't.
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment… From 2017: how the "Vienna-St Petersburg-Geneva" agenda for confidence-building and substantive talks was left to drift - along with others, I was calling for the Minsk Conference, eternally deferred, to finally be convened.
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment… After Armenia's Velvet Revolution in April 2018, there were expectations of a reset and a new opening - but deep structural and political obstacles remained.
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment… In January 2019 it looked some movement was possible: some minimal hotline and humanitarian cooperation was agreed, and the phrase "preparing populations for peace" emerged.
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment… But by April 2019 it was clear that going beyond what I called "low-cost confidence building" to the more meaningful ceasefire support infrastructure and substantive political dialogue was not happening.
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment… By the middle of 2020 we were witnessing a new deterioration in relations, after a disastrous public debate between the leaders in Munich.
chathamhouse.org/expert/comment… In July 2020, what had been effectively a de facto truce since the latter half of 2017 came to an end with a significant escalation in the area of the #Armenia-#Azerbaijan border.
valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/j… My reflections on the July 2020 escalation as auguring an inflection point in the conflict: "OSCE mediation efforts... are now challenged by global multipolarity featuring global and regional powers practising very different models of conflict resolution."
ips-journal.eu/regions/europe… Published three weeks before war broke out, I, like many others, was concerned about the totalisation of the conflict and trying to see ways out.
oc-media.org/features/analy… I've already tweeted this out, but to bring us up to date here's my first analysis of the current war published 30/9. More to come. My thoughts are with all those in the line of fire today.

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More from @LaurenceBroers

Laurence Broers Profile picture
Oct 21, 2022
The past few tumultuous weeks in Armenian-Azerbaijani relations have seemingly ended in commitments by both Yerevan and Baku to conclude a peace accord by year's end. Recent events serve notice of at least 5 risks accompanying this process, which I explore here. A (long) 🧵: 1/
Risk 1: Low-cost coercion: The first risk is a strategy of coercion that appears to deliver the outcomes that the coercing side is looking for, with no significant countervailing cost. 2/
crisisgroup.org/europe-central… True, Azerbaijan’s cross-border strikes on Armenia in September elevated the inter-state level of the conflict, resulting in a consolidation of international support for the territorial integrity norm. 3/
Read 31 tweets
Laurence Broers Profile picture
Sep 12, 2022
While the world is distracted with Ukraine’s success in Kharkiv, there are reports of large-scale Azerbaijani shelling + use of UAVs against targets in Armenia: Jermuk, Goris, Vardenis, Tatev, Kapan.
These are locations within the Republic of Armenia, *not* in Nagorny Karabakh (also the site of another escalation at the beginning of August).
The attacks come less than two weeks after the country’s leaders met with EUCO President Charles Michel in Brussels to review progress on prior agreements to move forward with connectivity, border demarcation, humanitarian issues and the possibility of a peace treaty.
Read 9 tweets
Laurence Broers Profile picture
Jun 1, 2022
I found George’s learner’s grammar of Georgian to be an indispensable resource when I was learning Georgian. George was also an engaging and inspired teacher of the language and I’ll always be grateful to him. 1/
His was the only modern learner’s grammar that was available at the time, and it was also a great privilege to be taught by the same person who wrote the grammar you are learning from. I learned Russian the same way with Anna Pilkington’s inspired course and teaching. 2/
Yes, the grammar showcased some of George’s political views in ways one wouldn’t usually find in a language grammar. Had I been the series editor I would no doubt have had issues with this to say the least. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Laurence Broers Profile picture
Mar 11, 2022
Some thoughts on implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (RIU) for Armenia + Azerbaijan, a 🧵. TLDR? A weakened/hardened Russia presents risks for both states, esp ARM, resulting in strategies of formal compliance or evasion, but AZ also sees tactical opportunities in NK.
Whether thru Armenia’s ‘complementarity’ or Azerbaijan’s ‘sovereign foreign policy/non-alignment’ the foreign policies of both states have been predicated on the avoidance of choice. RIU challenges that, forces both states to make both performative and real choices.
RIU radicalises relations between the West, where ARM + AZ both have a variety of important linkages, and the country with the single greatest leverage over both. Unsurprisingly, we have seen ARM + AZ strategies of formal compliance with RU and tactical evasions where possible.
Read 20 tweets
Laurence Broers Profile picture
Jul 20, 2021
Yesterday 19/7 there were reports of gunfire, along Armenia’s border with Azerbaijani exclave Nakhchivan, in the area of Sadarak / Yeraskh. Azerbaijani social media subsequently suggested reports of advances by Azerbaijani forces.
If true would likely be in the no man’s lands that still obtain between the lines of actual control in this area. (In summer 2018, Azerbaijan also reported advances in this area, meaning advances into no man’s lands: cacianalyst.org/publications/a…)
aysor.am/en/news/2021/0… On 20/7 local Armenian community head in Yeraskh Rudik Oghikyan was reported wounded by Azerbaijani fire, on the same day that Ilham Aliyev is meeting Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss implementation of Armenia-Azerbaijan agreements so far.
Read 14 tweets
Laurence Broers Profile picture
May 15, 2021
On the ‘borderization’ of #Armenia: this week a number of territorial encroachments by Azerbaijani forces were reported on Armenia proper, along the international border between Armenia and those parts of #Azerbaijan that were under Armenian occupation.
On 13/5 Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that some 250 AZE troops had advanced 3.5 kilometres around a remote lake in ARM’s southernmost Syunik region, Sev Lich, that Soviet-era maps indicate is divided by the de jure border. Other movements reported in Gegharkunik.
AZE says it is demarcating the border per maps in its possession. France and the US have called on AZE to withdraw. ARM has referred the matter to to the CSTO. As of today, latest reports are that Russian troops from the Gyumri base are on way to Syunik.
Read 11 tweets

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