We know many very committed Greens are involved in these protests against #HS2, concerned about the loss of habitat and woodland - we respect their dedication. But they’re protesting about the wrong thing - the real enemy is the #RIS2 roads programme. /1
Unlike #RIS2, #HS2 is an investment in a low-CO2 future. It may not look like it now during construction, but the tree loss and upheaval we see is going to be paid back over decades because of how it helps the shift from high-CO2 cars and planes to low-CO2 travel. /2
. The chart summarises: over 60 years HS2 with no policy assistance will be neutral or better; over 120 years a huge win; with Green policies behind it, a major sustainability win. Note the numbers: worst case 1.2m tonnes CO2.) /3
By contrast, the #RIS2 roads programme is made up of 75 road schemes, quoted as “4000 miles” of road, that unlike railways can only ever add to CO2 emissions. (you can read about them here if you want: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…) /4
This excellent report from Transport for Quality of Life (transportforqualityoflife.com/u/files/The%20…) has looked into the CO2 generation of the #RIS2 road schemes. The whole programme will generate about 20 MILLION TONNES of CO2 over just 12 years! Compare that with #HS2. /5
And some specific schemes: the A303 Stonehenge Tunnel, a single 2-mile road scheme, will generate 1.95 million tonnes of CO2 over 60 years as well as destroying ages-old landscape and history - that’s nearly double the whole of HS2! And it’ll keep doing it for ever. /6
And the Lower Thames Crossing, another short motorway scheme, will generate 5.7 MILLION TONNES OF CO2 after 60 years, and will keep on doing it. And it potentially impacts more ancient woodland (54 hectares) than #HS2 Phases 1 and 2a (39 hectares). /7
This chart shows the 60-year impact of these schemes, compared to the published #HS2 CO2 impact that we’ve shown is really pessimistic. /8
And that’s just the CO2. What about the land take? RIS2 is “4000 miles of road”. Let’s assume that that’s lanes rather than roads and each lane is 4m wide - that’s about 25 sq km of land. That’s around twice as much as #HS2 (greengauge21.net/hs2-land-take/).
So on CO2 and land, the roads programme is bigger and MUCH more destructive than #HS2. And it is NOT, repeat NOT, an investment in a sustainable future. #HS2 is. /10
So Green campaigners, including tree-protectors and veterans of the 1980s/90s road campaigns, should take a breather, lay off #HS2 and start mobilising to deal with the real threat of land, habitats and the climate - the #RIS2 programme. /11
We've seen a lot of evidence over conference week and today that @TheGreenParty is still some way from being able to discuss #HS2 constructively, based on a good understanding of what it offers as well as what it costs. The party's policy on high speed rail remains confused. /1
We say again: we are Party members who support #HS2 because it furthers the Green agenda rather than hinders it. We are happy to explain this case to any other member, including senior party figures, if asked. We aren't shills, trolls, astroturfers or trainspotters. /2
HS2 is being built. We aren't going to stop it. But we can campaign along the way: for HS2 Ltd to behave respectfully to the habitat and communities they disturb, for freed capacity to be used for local benefit, for transport policies to be put in place for road pricing, ../3
We often hear from Greens, including very senior ones, that #HS2 is a climate disaster because it won’t be CO2-neutral for a long time. “120 years!” is quoted, “HS2’s own figures!”. One big problem with this: it isn’t true. Let’s take a look at HS2 and CO2... /1
HS2’s official position is that after 60 years #HS2 will either be slightly CO2-negative (if construction doesn’t improve its CO2 efficiency) or slightly CO2-positive (if it does). (The Oakervee review covers this: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… - sections 5.30 to 5.37) /2
The modelling is covered in more detail in this document: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…. We’ve extracted the numbers below from that. They consider 2 future scenarios - Scenario A in which electric cars and grid decarbonisation happen slowly, and a more optimistic B. /3
There has been a call to cancel #HS2 and use the money on more immediate needs like properly funding the NHS or buying everyone a bike. We all want the NHS to be funded - but it doesn't work that way: in fact we'd be worse off. A thread to explain why... /1
We Greens believe in borrowing to invest. Our 2019 manifesto proposed £94bn, to be invested in the national grid, energy storage, renewable electricity, home insulation, R&D, railways, cycle paths, electric vehicle infrastructure and so on (greenparty.org.uk/assets/files/E… p85) /2.
The point about investing is that you invest *in* something - an asset which has value and generates a return (in accountant-speak, "CAPEX"). /3
Some Greens are worried about how HS2's drilling and tunnelling into the chalk below its route might affect drinking water and chalk streams such as the River Misbourne. It's a challenge, but they needn't be too alarmed. A thread on piles and tunnels ... /1
We'll start with a disclaimer - we're not water or geology experts, so we're open to correction if anything we say here turns out to be wrong. /2
First up - piling in the Colne Valley. To hold up the viaduct where the railway crosses the valley, HS2 has to drive piles through the upper soils down into the chalk which lies below. (This is what the viaduct will look like when it's done). /3
One of the criticisms of #HS2 is that because it's so fast, it uses up much more energy than normal trains - so Greens should push for lower speed railways. There is just enough truth in this to make it plausible, but it's not the whole story. A thread to explain why... /1
For sure, if you run a train twice as fast, it needs nearly four times as much energy to maintain speed. (check out Davis Equation if you want to know more. Aerodynamic resistance, that dominates at high speeds, goes up by the square of the speed). However .... /2
... other things to consider. Firstly, a better measure when comparing is how much energy is used to move *each passenger*; and if our interest is really CO2, it's how much greenhouse gas is generated to do that. /3
We keep coming across some misunderstandings from Greens about what #HS2 is, where it goes , what it's for and how much it costs. So here's a thread dealing with a few. /1
Let's start with where it goes. "Just 20 minutes quicker to Birmingham", people say. Nope: on the day that #HS2 starts, in 2029, its trains will also serve Liverpool, Manchester and Glasgow. Here's the service pattern for day 1. Each line = one train per hour both ways: /2
The trains run on the new railway between London and Birmingham, then continue their journeys on the existing railway - which will be being upgraded in the meantime to smooth things out. This is just like French TGVs do. /3