Thread by @ASPphysician

This is a followup to my thread yesterday to help the public understand better what is going on in Toronto (and Ottawa, Peel, and the rest of Ontario). I am going to focus on what everyone needs to understand about the ON testing fiasco (which is being played out elsewhere too)

First: I get my data from @jkwan_md @imgrund @JPSoucy @ishaberry2 to support my understanding. They get it primarily from publicly available sources, and make the data easy to understand.

Second: our daily case # in ON are artificially low (by ~330) because of the backlog.

The backlog was entirely preventable. I was told months ago when I asked that the reason labs weren't able to increase capacity was $$ from govt. @bruce_arthur covers this accurately here

https://twitter.com/bruce_arthur/status/1312371025447997441?s=20

Third: in July, we were catching no more than a quarter of active cases (we know this from data from @PublicHealthON who test blood samples donated/used for other things to see how many people were infected), and learning about it within 24-48h.

Even then, with few cases, we only knew where about half of people got their infection. Why? Because ppl were so socially active, it is hard to pin things down. Maybe other reasons. At least we were urging contacts to get tested also, to try and reduce them transmitting infection

But now, we are at a point where the majority of people being tested are going to be those who are symptomatic and willing AND ABLE to bother setting up an appointment. THIS WILL ARTIFICIALLY LOWER OUR NUMBERS BUT INCREASE TRANSMISSION BY THOSE WHO ARE PRE/ASYMPTOMATIC.

Fourth (🔑!): With expectedly lower numbers, this will have the effect of reassuring, well, everyone, that things aren't so bad. Additionally, because we are expectedly seeing a slower & lower rise of hospitalizations DUE TO COVID, it will give succor to the #casedemic morons.

Fifth: All this will have the expected effect of delayed action. The longer we don't act on breaking transmission cycles of a very contagious infectious disease, the size of the problem will grow exponentially (as it has). NOWHERE has this kinda growth abated w/o decisive action

NOTHING DONE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL RESULT IN A TRUE LOWERING OF CASES. As we do less interventions and testing, the no. of true cases will rise, not lower regardless of the official case number. What happens when you have lots of cases without awareness: US in Spring.

Melbourne 🇦🇺knew this and acted, Madrid 🇪🇸 didnt. Melbourne had unnecessary deaths, but emerged from their winter's darkness. We are behaving ~Madrid, which is now in lockdown, had 2400 ppl admitted to hospital the past week, w/ no end in sight. It doesn't have to be this way.

What does it take:
1. Personal responsibility to wear a mask, avoid unnecessary socialization/gathering (especially indoors)
2. Collective responsibility to say "Dumbass, don't go there--we have a COVID crisis" to your friends/family.
3. Govt. responsibility to act