For those who think a Swedish "second wave" is only about how many people are hospitalized or dying. This is till happening to me, now almost 7 MONTHS after I first fell ill. Left is from Sept 22, right is right now.
Most of the time is good now, >97 but this is still regular
That's my blood oxygen levels dipping under 94, the "safe" level. At my worst it went in to the 80s. I bought the pulseoximeter a couple of years ago out of curiosity, prior to Covid I had never seen it drop below 97. I bought a second to confirm it was correct. It is.
ZERO health issues before covid apart from some mild allergies. I was very fit, resting pulse rate in the mid to low 50s, training 5-7 times a week and training others
Sweden is now having thousands of people a week testing postive for covid. How many are going to be #longcovid?
Any "expert" who doesn't talk about this when being asked their opinions on what is happening excludes themselves as an expert. They are not informed. They don't know what this virus is about, and what impact it is having on society and individuals.
It's not just about the deaths. This is not "anxiety". This is real and it affects people with so-called "mild" cases as well as the hospitalised.
Most of us couldn't even get medical attention, let alone tested. I was told just to stay home. Health services didn't want people with suspected covid coming in and potentially infecting others.
Around the world, medical professionals are starting to take this seriously and acknowledge it's real. But how many calling for "the swedish approach" are considering this? The potential long term health and economic impacts are enormous.
It's illness that for some, they will never recover, with long-term damage to the heart and other organs. msn.com/en-us/health/m…
The symptoms vary, for me it's regularly bouts with shortness of breath, lots of GI problems, pain and diarrhea sometimes for a week or more. More recently I've started getting "kaleidoscope vision" or auras, something associated with migraine, which I've never had before.
For others, fever coming and going, brain fog, headaches, pains and rashes.
Sars-cov-2 is know to infect nearly every organ in the body.
Is this what you #HerdImmunity supporters want? 0.5% of your population dead, and another 10% of your population sick and suffering for months, perhaps a lifetime?
You don't want this virus. You don't want anyone in your family to have this virus. It's can be stopped. We well have vaccines next year. Fight for your health, fight for your families and friends health and fight for your government to stop it.
/end endcoronavirus.org
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I only recently discovered the Swedish Palliative Care Registry and have started to compare it's data to Folkhälsomyndigheten, and there are some significant differences.
FHM unfortunately doesn't provide breakdown of deaths by age by date, but they do provide cumulative totals by 10 year age groups, eg 70-79 yr olds.
The palliative care registry does the same, but unfortunately using a different range, eg 75-85 🤨
If I take FHM's reports of total deaths from 60yrs and up reported today, and subtract the same figure reported on Sept 1, I get 72 deaths so far registered in September
If I take the 65 and up age group from SPR (a smaller group) I get 103 deaths.
Irish interview with Johan Giesecke. Interviewer @boucherhayes seems to have a solid grasp of epidemiological confounders, and Giesecke denies giving advice (paid?) and admits he spoke without any research into local conditions.
Fascinating and worrying data from the UK on adherence to requests to isolate/quarantine.
If you're going to ask - or even *demand* people do something - you need to remove barriers. There clearly seems to be some structural barriers in the UK.
ps @emanuelkarlsten and friends, though Adam calls himself an Epidemiologist and works at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, his formal degrees are in Maths and Statistics, nothing in "epidemiology" so you should probably ignore this fascinating paper ... 😛
Learning from papers like this is important for Sweden. Stockholm, for example is considering implementing "family quarantine" - if one person in a family tests positives, adult family members must also stay home. expressen.se/nyheter/lakare…
Folkhälsomyndigheten has not reported R since September 5, so thought I'd run the numbers myself, using the same EpiEstim software Folkhalsomyndigheten was using to calculate R, with the parameters they reported. They may have tweaked them, so might be some minor differences.
Friday Stockholm hit ca Rt 1.7, Sweden ca Rt 1.2 😬
Above 1 means you're starting to look at exponential-like growth again.
Tip: "Estim" in the name of the software is short for *estimate* and there's different ways of calculating this.
Addition: As others have noted, FHM is using a different dataset than I am, apparently excluding "mild cases" and various other groups, so we're not going to come up with the same figures.
That is a 2% *decrease* on the previous weeks testing. So STFU you people.
Norwegian updated data is also out, and as you can tell from the breathless reporting in Swedish media about the catastrophe befalling that country, it's 🦘bad. If only they'd listened to Tegnell!🦘
One thing I'm happy to see is someone finally doing the hard math on excess mortality and taking in to account Swedish mortality is decreasing and was much lower than normal in the weeks before CV19 hit, and that the death toll may be as much as 40% higher than currently reported
On a quick read through they estimated significantly lower IFR than FHM found in an early report, which is interesting. -
Overall, the IFR for Sweden in scenarios (a)–(e) is estimated to 0.46; 0.44; 0.42; 0.34 and 0.30 %, respectively