The concerns I’m getting so far re this massive anomaly/backlog in Covid statistics relates to contact tracing as much as anything else. The ‘computer problem’ the PM referred to this morning appears to have resulted in massive delays in positive cases getting to contact tracers
And particularly local contact tracing teams.

This sounds pretty bad, from the messages I’ve been getting here.
One v well placed local source: ‘Basically it was clear last week the national computer systems weren’t working.’ 😬
Another refers to a ‘major test and trace cock-up incoming’ :(
One example I’ve been given is an Oldham case that tested positive earlier in September and took v nearly a fortnight to reach local local teams. Am told there have been well over 15,000 cases stuck in the national system in the last week
DPHs in the NW tonight have been told: ‘IT issue is in the automated process that accumulates Covid 19 positive lab results and passes through into the contact tracing system and also into overall dashboards and data publications.’ 1/
‘The implication is that over the last week a substantial number of positive cases (15,841) have been stalled in the system.’
Two separate people pinpoint Sept 24 as the start of all this.

I don’t understand the underlying cause, but one source has pointed to an ‘algorithm’ failure; I’m not sure I can quite bring myself to compute that, no pun intended. We’ll see.
Final prediction: a lot of university cities and towns are about to see a sudden spike in their figures. Including, possibly especially, Manchester.

And that’s a wrap. Hopefully. /ends

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More from @JenWilliamsMEN

4 Oct
Andrew Marr asking the PM why the infection rate in Oldham has doubled while they’ve been under extra restrictions. They’re not working are they?

PM: it’s too early to say
Mcr has been under restrictions since the end of July; infection rates are up 10x. Why isn’t it working?

PM: how do you ensure places fight the virus effectively while keeping the economy moving? The way to do it is hands, face, space/ rule of 6.

We’re not under rule of 6, FYI
PM says ‘one of the things that’s been put to us is that by curtailing hours’ (ie 10pm curfew) this can have an effect.

Put to the government by whom?
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
New: Sounds like Bolton is being taken out of its extra pub restrictions, after Matt Hancock announced it is being brought it in line with the rest of GM. No extra restrictions for GM atm. This is what GM leaders had wanted
(And Tory MPs in Bolton.)
Extra measures for other NW places though: Liverpool city region and Warrington
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
They're asked whether the strategy is to come down harder on the north of England this winter. PM: We want to bear down hard on the virus where we need to do that most and that's clearly in the areas we've identified.
Which raises quite some question for the northern economy. If there's going to be a period of stricter measures here, then where's the bespoke financial support? Local furlough?
PM backtracks. "This remains a national threat and a national challenge."
Read 6 tweets
30 Sep
Speaker is having a massive go at govt about the way it has gone about local lockdown rules. Shows 'total disregard' for the House.
KS starts #pmqs immediately with local lockdowns. Says only one place has gone into them and come out - Luton. Why does he think that is? PM says Luton was a 'success' because people pulled together and followed the guidance.
Interesting implication, there.
Read 11 tweets
29 Sep
A brief, niche but important complaint about the NHS and statistics, which goes as follows.

We have been trying to succinctly report the Covid picture here. Here’s an example. Each day my colleague @pdgallagher crunches the numbers and shows the rates and direction of travel. Image
However we often get accused of failing to put this into context. Where are the admissions? Why are we sensationalising??!!

Because we only have the infection rates on a daily basis. Not the admissions.
When we do get the admissions numbers they are (mostly, although they don’t always happen) at a GM level, via the mayoral press conference. Which is usually on a Wednesday. But not always. Here’s last week’s GM admissions for the previous 7 days. (Tiny, apologies.) Image
Read 8 tweets
29 Sep
Where hospitals are at here, headed into winter

- in January 55 ppl were waiting 1yr for planned ops; now more than 10k; 20k by next March
- ppl will be asked to call 111 before attending A&E from Oct
- specialist electives could be sent out of GM

1/
manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-m…
“Every winter has been sold to our staff as unprecedented. Now what we’re going into is properly unprecedented.” 2/
Hospitals now have to balance that huge elective backlog along with a diagnostic backlog including cancers, lack of capacity due to Covid infection measures, lack of staff due to Covid, flu/other similar things, normal winter pressures and Covid cases themselves. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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