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5 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
NEW: Republicans may have a real shot at overturning Roe v. Wade. But political danger lurks.

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
.@pewresearch, which conducts wide-ranging studies into American attitudes on abortion, found 70-28% opposition to overturning Roe.

Among key groups of women — college grads, independents, suburbanites — it’s more lopsided.

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
TRUMP, 10/2016: Overturning Roe v. Wade will “happen automatically” if I “put another two or perhaps three justices on” SCOTUS.

TRUMP, 9/2020: Roe v. Wade is “not on the ballot” with the Barrett nomination. “You don't know her view on Roe v. Wade.”

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Conservatives had a good thing going on Roe for decades — they used the issue to rouse their base with no expectation of actually overturning it and thus minimal backlash.

Now they're in a position to deliver and some, including Trump, are soft-pedaling. nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…

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More from @sahilkapur

Sahil Kapur Profile picture
4 Oct
New NBC/WSJ poll of 2020 registered voters

Biden 53% (+2 since last month)
Trump 39% (-4)

**

Who did a better job in the debate?

Biden 49%
Trump 24%
-both equally 1%
-neither good 17%
-not sure 9%

nbcnews.com/politics/meet-…
In the NBC/WSJ poll, Trump's share versus Biden (39%) tracks closer to his favorable or "positive" rating of 39% than his job approval of 43%.

One way to read: there are people who think Trump's doing a fine job but dislike him personally and won't vote for him.
NBC/WSJ poll on positivity ratings

Trump: 39% 👍, 55% 👎, 5% neutral
Biden: 43% 👍, 41% 👎, 16% neutral

Sixteen percent of America being "neutral" on a presidential candidate at a time like this is (1) absolutely wild and (2) potentially an underrated strength for Biden.
Read 4 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
4 Oct
At a South Carolina debate with @harrisonjaime, Sen. @LindseyGrahamSC promises that Republicans will confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court and vows to do it “safely.” Image
At his Senate debate, Lindsey Graham frames the election as one between “Donald Trump” and “liberal Democrats.”
~20 minutes into this debate and I’ve lost count of how many times Lindsey Graham has used the phrase “conservative judges.”
Read 9 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
30 Sep
First presidential debate is underway.

Moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News kicks off by saying none of the questions were shared with the commission or either of the candidates.
Trump defends his move to speedily appoint a Supreme Court justice at this stage: "We won the election. Elections have consequences. We have the Senate. We have the White House. We have a phenomenal nominee."
Read 35 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
29 Sep
"The American people should make no mistake," Chuck Schumer says, adding that any vote to put Amy Coney Barrett on the Supreme Court "is a vote to strike down the Affordable Care Act and eliminate protections for Americans with preexisting conditions."
.@SenSchumer says Republicans are moving to deny Ruth Bader Ginsburg's dying wish and "replace her with someone who could tear down everything she has built."
Schumer says Republicans are fabricating attacks on Catholicism that "not a single Democrat will make," calling it an "invented" and "imaginary" issue intended to avoid talking about their '16 double standard, the lawsuit to overturn the ACA, and curtailing Americans' rights.
Read 4 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
27 Sep
ANALYSIS: Trump has the votes in Supreme Court fight, but Democrats have the political edge

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Dems are rapidly coalescing around an ACA-focused strategy. Why? (1) Polls show the issue benefits them, (2) A lawsuit is headed to SCOTUS, (3) Trump said he'd pick anti-ACA judges; (4) Barrett has a paper trail of legal skepticism, (5) There's a pandemic. nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Democrats lack the power to stop Trump and his party from quickly replacing Ginsburg and creating the most conservative Supreme Court since the Lochner era.

What they can do is try to maximize their political pain.

nbcnews.com/politics/2020-…
Read 4 tweets
Sahil Kapur Profile picture
21 Sep
Mitch McConnell is on the Senate floor praising Ruth Bader Ginsburg as a “spirited, powerful and historic champion for American women” and says: “The legal world is mourning a giant.”
Mitch McConnell now on the Senate floor: “Presidnent Trump’s nominee for this vacancy will receive a vote on the floor of the Senate.”
McConnell is distinguishing 2016 from 2020 by saying there was “a divided government” then while Republicans control the Senate and White House now.

(For context, some of his own members didn’t see it this way at the time, including Chuck Grassley and Lindsey Graham.)
Read 9 tweets

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