1/This raises an interesting point. Does antipathy toward the government of a country imply antipathy toward its people?

Hopefully not. But maybe! It's complicated.
2/If you're not a bigot, then you'll recognize the basic truth that most people, in most countries, are good people (most of the time).

But organizations, made up of people, sometimes do very bad things. Concentration camps, invasions, ecological destruction, etc. etc.
3/Therefore there's a natural tendency to mentally separate the people of a country from its leadership.

To view Americans positively while hating Trump, for example.

Or to say "I don't hate China, I hate the CCP." Which many people say.
4/In the extreme, this leads us to imagine a world of "lions led by donkeys" (an old WW1 saying).

Which leads us to the notion that we could get rid of the problem if we could only change a country's leadership.

But this is a very dangerous idea in practice...
5/Bush, for example, thought he could separate our actions toward the Iraqi people from our actions toward Saddam Hussein.

I remember U.S. soldiers chanting "Iraqis! Iraqis!" as they helped topple a statue of Saddam in 2003.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firdos_Sq…
6/Hurting the leadership of a foreign country, whether through war, sanctions, or other sorts of pressure, generally involves hurting the people of that country too.
7/In America, we also have a tendency to convince ourselves that autocratic or repressive governments must be unpopular with their people.

But China's government, despite concentration camps and tons of repressive laws, is wildly popular in China.

news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/…
8/When we see the popularity of governments that do bad things, one reaction is to view the people of that country as generally bad. To think that Trump voters are evil because they voted for Trump, Chinese people are evil because they support the CCP, etc. etc.
9/And this line of reasoning leads some back toward the idea of whole-nation conflict. They discard the seemingly self-evident notion that "people are good, governments are evil", and say that well, OK, maybe sometimes whole populations of people ARE evil.

That's very dangerous.
10/So what do we do?

Do we try to separate populations from governments in our mind, even though it's often impossible in practice?

Or do we embrace the seductive idea that sometimes whole nations or populations are bad?
11/My ideal answer is: Neither.

What we SHOULD do is to focus not on moral judgments, but on goals.

Peace between nations, universal human rights, etc.

And we should do what we need to do to achieve those goals.
12/We should discard the idea of a world of heroes and villains, where our job is to be the heroes and figure out who the villains are and punish the villains.

Geopolitics is not a Marvel movie.
13/But this is what I think we SHOULD do.

What will we actually do?

If history is any guide, it will be some combination of racism, bellicosity, willful ignorance and catastrophic foolishness.
14/Let's hope that technological advances, social evolution, and centuries of history are enough to make us a better, saner, more considerate, more peaceful species than we used to be.

In other words, let's hope @sapinker is right.

amazon.com/Better-Angels-…
15/Unfortunately this is a pretty weak answer to questions like what we should do about human rights abuses in other countries, how we should respond to territorial aggression, etc. Those remain unsolved problems.

(end)

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More from @Noahpinion

7 Oct
1/Today's @bopinion post is about Trump's taxes, and what they show about how America allocates capital.

We appear to have some big problems.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/Trump has a bunch of businesses that lose money. Our financial system has lent him money to throw into unsuccessful golf courses, hotels, and so on.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/A lot of these loans are loans that Trump hasn't even paid back yet, using loopholes in the tax system to avoid paying taxes on those unpaid debts.

Why would creditors give money to a guy who wastes the money on bad businesses and doesn't even pay them back?
Read 13 tweets
7 Oct
WOW. It isn't just in the U.S. where negative opinions of China have soared. It's all across the developed world.

pewresearch.org/global/2020/10… Image
The % of people with no confidence in Xi Jinping is now over 70% in every country surveyed.

Japan (84%) and South Korea (83%) are the most negative on Xi. Image
Here's a longer-term picture.

Almost every country surveyed seems to have become more unfavorable towards China around 2012, when Xi took power. And then there was another big jump in unfavorability this year. Image
Read 9 tweets
6 Oct
1/I wrote a post about a bright spot in the U.S. economy: The upward mobility of Hispanic Americans.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/During the recent economic boom, Hispanic incomes grew faster than White, Black, or even Asian incomes. Image
3/Now, that growth is from a lower base -- at median, White households still make almost $20,000 more per year than Hispanic households.

But it's good progress. And it's accompanied by a widespread feeling of economic optimism and upward mobility.

pewresearch.org/hispanic/2012/… ImageImage
Read 17 tweets
28 Sep
Among the points I made in my debate with @CarlZha:

1. China's neighbors mostly have negative opinions of China, because they're (justifiably) afraid of it

2. China's repression of the Uighurs is a bad sign about what kind of hegemon it would be

Carl basically argued that Chinese regional hegemony in Asia would be benign, citing the "tributary" system that prevailed in imperial times.

I expressed my doubts as to whether China's neighbors would like to be its tributaries.

Carl questions the sources that report 1,000,000 Uighurs imprisoned in camps in Xinjiang.

To which I reply: "Suppose it's only 500,000. Should we be less scared?"

Read 7 tweets
23 Sep
It absolutely should. The government should be building luxury condos in superstar cities and selling them cheaply to young people.
Housing only works as a sustainable wealth vehicle if you keep building more of it.

Building more housing creates actual real wealth.
Right now, the debate is between 3 factions:
1. YIMBYs: allow more private housing development
2. PHIMBYs: govt. constructs social housing and rents it to people
3. NIMBYs: do nothing, fuck the world

I want a fourth option: Govt. builds new housing and sells it cheaply.
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
1/For a chance of pace, today's @bopinion post is optimistic!

It's about the robust growth in middle-class incomes from 2014 through 2019.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/On the eve of COVID, median U.S. household incomes, adjusted for inflation, were substantially higher than they had ever been before.

By many measures, this income growth was even better than the late 90s. Image
3/Remember, one way people in the 90s grew their incomes was by putting in more hours. That was far less true in the 10s.

So the 10s income growth wasn't just bigger -- it was better. Image
Read 13 tweets

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