1/I wrote a post about a bright spot in the U.S. economy: The upward mobility of Hispanic Americans.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/During the recent economic boom, Hispanic incomes grew faster than White, Black, or even Asian incomes. Image
3/Now, that growth is from a lower base -- at median, White households still make almost $20,000 more per year than Hispanic households.

But it's good progress. And it's accompanied by a widespread feeling of economic optimism and upward mobility.

pewresearch.org/hispanic/2012/… ImageImage
4/Now, *part* of this is a composition effect, from falling immigration.

Large-scale immigration from Central America (particularly Mexico) stopped in 2007. And immigrants' kids tend to make much more than their parents.

migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-…
5/But much of it is simply Hispanics, as a group, moving up in America.

Economists Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie Jones and Sonya Porter noted in 2018 that Hispanics' upward mobility is similar to that of Whites:

equality-of-opportunity.org/assets/documen… ImageImage
6/And here is a report by sociologist Van C. Tran that finds much the same:

journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.117… Image
7/How are Hispanics achieving this upward mobility?

Education is one important way. Hispanic rates of college enrollments surpassed that of Whites back in 2012, and Hispanic high school dropout rates have plummeted.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2013… ImageImage
8/A second factor is geographic diffusion.

Hispanics are moving out of traditional immigrant enclaves, and spreading out across the country.

That tends to raise incomes and increase opportunity.

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
9/Strikingly, Chicago is now 1/3 Hispanic, despite not being geographically close to any Spanish-speaking country.

chicagotribune.com/hoy/ct-mexican…
10/Here is research by @leah_boustan and others showing that geographic diffusion is good for upward mobility, for the descendants of immigrants.

nber.org/papers/w27372
11/Anyway, it appears that Hispanic Americans are following much the same paths as other recent-immigrant groups: Getting educated, spreading across the country, and moving up economically.

This is a huge American success story, at a time when there are few such stories.
12/But I don't want to be a rah-rah cheerleader and act like there's no work left to be done here.

Many Hispanic Americans still suffer significant racial discrimination.

pewresearch.org/hispanic/2018/… Image
13/And this has no doubt been exacerbated by the hateful and exclusionary rhetoric of President Donald Trump.

abcnews.go.com/US/trumps-lang…
14/Furthermore, there's one economic dimension in which Hispanics are NOT yet catching up to Whites in America:

Wealth.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017… Image
15/The wealth gap between White and Hispanic Americans remains enormous. Image
16/Hispanics have made significant progress in incomes and education, but not yet in wealth.

U.S. policy try to help Hispanics build more wealth.
17/But despite these remaining challenges, the news about Hispanic American progress is real, and very encouraging. A rare bright spot amid an overall vista of stagnation.

(end)

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

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More from @Noahpinion

7 Oct
1/Today's @bopinion post is about Trump's taxes, and what they show about how America allocates capital.

We appear to have some big problems.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/Trump has a bunch of businesses that lose money. Our financial system has lent him money to throw into unsuccessful golf courses, hotels, and so on.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/A lot of these loans are loans that Trump hasn't even paid back yet, using loopholes in the tax system to avoid paying taxes on those unpaid debts.

Why would creditors give money to a guy who wastes the money on bad businesses and doesn't even pay them back?
Read 13 tweets
7 Oct
WOW. It isn't just in the U.S. where negative opinions of China have soared. It's all across the developed world.

pewresearch.org/global/2020/10… Image
The % of people with no confidence in Xi Jinping is now over 70% in every country surveyed.

Japan (84%) and South Korea (83%) are the most negative on Xi. Image
Here's a longer-term picture.

Almost every country surveyed seems to have become more unfavorable towards China around 2012, when Xi took power. And then there was another big jump in unfavorability this year. Image
Read 9 tweets
5 Oct
1/This raises an interesting point. Does antipathy toward the government of a country imply antipathy toward its people?

Hopefully not. But maybe! It's complicated.
2/If you're not a bigot, then you'll recognize the basic truth that most people, in most countries, are good people (most of the time).

But organizations, made up of people, sometimes do very bad things. Concentration camps, invasions, ecological destruction, etc. etc.
3/Therefore there's a natural tendency to mentally separate the people of a country from its leadership.

To view Americans positively while hating Trump, for example.

Or to say "I don't hate China, I hate the CCP." Which many people say.
Read 15 tweets
28 Sep
Among the points I made in my debate with @CarlZha:

1. China's neighbors mostly have negative opinions of China, because they're (justifiably) afraid of it

2. China's repression of the Uighurs is a bad sign about what kind of hegemon it would be

Carl basically argued that Chinese regional hegemony in Asia would be benign, citing the "tributary" system that prevailed in imperial times.

I expressed my doubts as to whether China's neighbors would like to be its tributaries.

Carl questions the sources that report 1,000,000 Uighurs imprisoned in camps in Xinjiang.

To which I reply: "Suppose it's only 500,000. Should we be less scared?"

Read 7 tweets
23 Sep
It absolutely should. The government should be building luxury condos in superstar cities and selling them cheaply to young people.
Housing only works as a sustainable wealth vehicle if you keep building more of it.

Building more housing creates actual real wealth.
Right now, the debate is between 3 factions:
1. YIMBYs: allow more private housing development
2. PHIMBYs: govt. constructs social housing and rents it to people
3. NIMBYs: do nothing, fuck the world

I want a fourth option: Govt. builds new housing and sells it cheaply.
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep
1/For a chance of pace, today's @bopinion post is optimistic!

It's about the robust growth in middle-class incomes from 2014 through 2019.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/On the eve of COVID, median U.S. household incomes, adjusted for inflation, were substantially higher than they had ever been before.

By many measures, this income growth was even better than the late 90s. Image
3/Remember, one way people in the 90s grew their incomes was by putting in more hours. That was far less true in the 10s.

So the 10s income growth wasn't just bigger -- it was better. Image
Read 13 tweets

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