A lot of success that occurs in life can be attributed to timing — being at the right place and at the right time.
An acquittance of mine told me a story the other about how his father was very successful in real estate until the 2008 GFC came alone.
Result? Lost everything.
Personally, I did some real estate investing after the bust during 2014 onwards — when the boom got underway.
Result? Lifechanging results.
People would like to attribute success to their wits, smarts & intelligence.
The truth is, for the most part, its just luck & timing.
Don't let your ego get in the way. Remain humble & understand that asset prices, the economy, and investing are very cyclical.
Eventually, it all comes back full circle. After all:
"There are two types of investors. Those who are humble. And those who will learn to be humble."
In the wise words Mr Rogers:
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
• • •
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If it’s not your goal to buy 1 property a year, hit a 7-figure salary or get a 10M turnover start up — then don’t do it!
Just because someone said “it’s a smart thing to do” it doesn’t mean it’s smart for you.
That’s why it’s PERSONAL finance.
Everyone in Australia (CA, UK or US) always tells me the goal isn’t net worth, it’s the number of assets you have producing passive income.
Guess what?
I didn’t follow their conventional wisdom & I did just fine.
I ended up traveling the world for a decade and did it my way.
I didn’t want to manage 12 properties, have massive loans (even if others pay down its debt), nor did I want to have a business start up so I remain stuck in one place.
My financial goal wasn’t “a number” (net worth or passive annual income).
1/ As you get better at your niche, you start to recognize the good from the ugly.
Example:
• nonperforming loan
• mezzanine debt opportunity
• London construction project
• interest rate 20% pa
• gross exit LTV @ 78%
What is the real risk here? (continued)
2/ At 78% LTV, you do have a meaningful buffer/cushion from the equity holder + their potential profit.
However, the story gets better.
First, traditionally London developers have had to build a certain part of the residential development in the so-called "affordable" space.
3/ As an example, with a 20 unit building in central London, you might also have 1 commercial space below and 4-6 affordable units which are traditionally purchased in bulk by registered housing associations.
These are usually the easiest to sell & go straight away.
The real estate peeps who think 75% LTV is "safe as houses" are another GFC repeat away from getting taken to the cleaners.
US multifamily dropped -25% around the country during the 2008/09 period. High rises dropped -30%. NYC, Phoenix, LA, Palm Beach, Miami all dropped >30%.
Not predicting a crash is around the corner, just posting the lessons of the previous downturn, which will be useful to some and a "seen it, but don't care about it" to others.
Today, CAP rates all around the world, not just in the US, are at rock bottom historical levels.
Expect...
Today isn't 2008 anymore.
There are no more rate cuts to be made like in 2008. And they have done so much QE1,2,3 & 4 already, that investors are already questioning the confidence they hold in central banks' abilities to stimulate the economy.
"Intoxicated by success, forgetting the lesson of the lean years, men lose their normal business prudence. They increase the output of their factories or of their mines without duly considering the demand for their goods; they buy much and produce more.
They've seen friends acquire wealth in a few lucky prosperous months; they'd do likewise, whether it is in dry goods, pig iron, rawhides or stocks. Greed, a species of moral malaria, fills their system, poisons their blood & colors their thoughts with the jaundice hue of gold."
"As the fever rises, they cease to think calmly. They abandon logical processes, they scorn dispassionate analyses of conditions and probabilities. All about them they behold the faces of gold stricken fellow madmen. They know that a final crash is inevitable, because such...