Great pleasure to join the @isirvAVG Therapeutics Meeting.
Thank you to Alan Hay & Fred Hayden & Organising Committee.
isirv.org/site/images/co…
1) Critical need for therapeutics for COVID19 in prevention, treatment & to halt progression of illness. Understandable focus globally on vaccines but even when we have vaccines we will still need therapeutics (& Diagnostics & Health Systems to make them available).
Always good to remember that for many infectious diseases we do not have vaccines despite many years of great effort & we know therapeutics can play critical role in reducing transmission, burden disease & save lives - HIV, TB, Malaria, Dengue & many others.
2) Need to understand underlying causes of infection & pathogenesis through discovery science - virology, transmission, host & pathogen genetics, immunology, PK:PD & to see this as a multi-system infection, not only respiratory.
To understand the rapid dynamic of the infection, the changing course of the illness through the acute phase, the causes of deterioration & the 'Long-COVID' clearly a major clinical impact.
How therapeutics work across all ages, genders & in those with co-morbidities & how specific drugs work alongside best clinical care, oxygen, fluids others.
3) Lessons other acute dynamic viral infections:dengue,flu, MERS,SARS-1 etc. But not assume what might be true others will be true in a novel infection with no or limited immunity. Anti-infection drugs are invariably better when given early, but may be benefit throughout illness.
4) Experimental medicine studies in small groups of patients are critical to understand pathogenesis & how treatments might work. But when logic & early evidence critical to assess these treatments in large, prospective randomised controlled trials with comparable outcomes.
Tribute to @WHO Solidarity, #RECOVERY, @NIH, @isaric, @EDCTP @EU_Commission, China & other networks assessing new & repurposed drugs at scale to know what works & what does not. Avoid politicisation of clinical trials, medicine & public health.
Throughout COVID pandemic there have been too many small clinical trials that cannot provide definitive answers to critical questions & too many claims of what works without the evidence needed to help patients.
5) Setting up clinical trials in a crisis is (almost) impossible. These networks have to exist all the time, providing important clinical evidence on issues important when there is no epidemic & able to pivot to work on epidemics when they happen.
Depend on trusted relations,sustainable funding,dedicated teams & bring value in inter-epidemic periods & be able to respond when situation changes.The basis of @isaric & similar networks @NIH, Red Network Mexico, EDCTP, PREPARE in @EU_Commission & others isaric.tghn.org
This all needs open interactions & collaboration across borders, across teams, with academia, industry, Govt & philanthropic funding & critically industry. Regulators must be engaged throughout helping to defining what is needed to move from idea to reality
6) Amid horror COVID19 will be huge advances understanding & treatment for acute viral infections, focused on COVID, but with impact many other infections for which we do not have good treatments & preventative therapies now whether anti-viral, immune modulators, combinations etc
7) We must ensure the understanding, new & repurposed treatments are accessible globally those who need them. Global access at centre of what we do for COVID - for diagnostics, treatments, vaccines, oxygen, PPE & Health Systems. This is the ACT-Accelerator who.int/initiatives/ac…
If we get this right in crisis COVID, we can ensure the scientific advances enhance & save lives globally from COVID, but also are applied to treatment, manufacturing, distribution & access to treatments for other critical illness, that mAbs are available & affordable globally
For COVID, other infections, but also for the treatment of cancer, autoimmune diseases, for snakebite & others. This requires the discovery science, the R&D, changes to manufacturing & distribution. And with access at its core mission.
Best wishes for the @isirvAVG Conference - a huge challenge, but one that can be met, & which will make a huge difference to COVID, but also beyond COVID.
isirv.org/site/images/co…

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More from @JeremyFarrar

9 Oct
The tragedy is how predictable this has been since at least early July. It was not inevitable. It is not inevitable now that this worsens, but to avoid spiralling out of control needs to be action now. We are close to or at events & choices of 13-23 March.
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
More data always useful, but don't try & bring more precision to public health interventions than a highly complex system allows. If strategy is to reduce r<1, transmission, hospitalisations,deaths,pressure NHS directly & indirectly it will need package of interventions now.
We are back to choices faced in the early March. With the lag time between making a decision, its implementation & its effect measured in weeks the longer the decisions are delayed the harder & more draconian are the interventions needed to change trajectory of epidemic curve.
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct
Latest data-COVID UK.Tough political decisions to be made. But data is clear. Community transmission increasing. Number people needing hospitalisation increasing. Tragically more people dying. Options for interventions might be debated but data is clear.
theguardian.com/uk
UK is on an epidemic path. The epidemic will continue to expand under the current restrictions. A choice we face. Need to be honest about the implications for the choices that are made. wellcome.org/news/covid-19-…
Some questioned the data & comments from @uksciencechief & @CMO_England on 21st September. Two weeks on, their comments were spot on.
standard.co.uk/news/uk/whitty…
Read 7 tweets
26 Sep
Tomorrow's @thesundaytimes. Data is clear. Political & societal decisions on what to do extraordinary difficult. Very little room for a middle way that keeps things open & also prevents transmission, illness & COVID/NonCOVID deaths. Needs a national debate thetimes.co.uk/article/no-fud…
Not possible keep society & economy open as now & suppress transmission,prevent hospitalisations & deaths COVID & non-COVID & pressure on NHS. Anyone suggesting there are easy political decisions or possible to open society & economy & control epidemic is doing a great disservice
Need urgent national debate & political decisions to be made & fairly binary choice:Open up society & economy but accept higher transmission,hospitalisations & deaths vs further restrictions implemented now, reduce transmission, keep schools open & reduce COVID illnesses & deaths
Read 8 tweets
24 Sep
Inborn errors of type I IFN immunity in patients with life-threatening COVID-19 science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
The ability to control the initial infection through type I IFN may be so important in COVID and also many other acute viral infections - Flu, Dengue, Yellow Fever, Chik, and others.
Idea that these infections are characterised by inability to control initial infection. As a result of a poor early immune response. Followed later by an exaggerated & uncontrolled response.
Read 5 tweets
20 Sep
Absolutely right UK as Europe at tipping point. Tipping points not defined by a day they happen over wks as transmission increases. Later functional interventions in place harder & longer they are needed to reduce transmission.Very tough political choices independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
No easy, simple non-disruptive choices. It is simply not possible to have everything open, working, schools/HE/FE back & also reduce transmission & prevent all COVID related and unrelated illness. These are very hard political choices & none are easy.
A "Swedish" model is not that different. Anyone offering simple, easy options, or arguing that everything can be opened up without restrictions & such a choice will have little or no consequence is doing a disservice to society & to the choices that need to be made.
Read 4 tweets
17 Sep
Interesting to be blaming SAGE. Has been clear & in the advice that the UK faced an inevitable increase in community transmission & cases after the summer & needed a fully functional & trusted T-T-I in place. mol.im/a/8744117
Repeatedly since May this from 9th August - "Most urgently, we need to ramp up testing. We are not where we need to be. We must improve contact tracing, so we’re identifying more cases and providing better, faster data locally."
"We need to make it much easier for everyone to get tested, including those who have been in contact with cases or think they might be infected, whether they have symptoms or not."
Read 8 tweets

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