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Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
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6 Oct, 7 tweets, 3 min read
Latest data-COVID UK.Tough political decisions to be made. But data is clear. Community transmission increasing. Number people needing hospitalisation increasing. Tragically more people dying. Options for interventions might be debated but data is clear.
theguardian.com/uk
UK is on an epidemic path. The epidemic will continue to expand under the current restrictions. A choice we face. Need to be honest about the implications for the choices that are made. wellcome.org/news/covid-19-…
Some questioned the data & comments from @uksciencechief & @CMO_England on 21st September. Two weeks on, their comments were spot on.
standard.co.uk/news/uk/whitty…
Lessons from years climate change-some tried undermine data, undermine messengers, discredit science or the scientists. Crucial debate to be had on what right response to expanding COVID epidemic is. But no benefit from ignoring the data or suggesting tough choices are not needed
"French officials >40% intensive care hospital beds in Paris taken by Covid patients." @BBC Increasing community transmission will lead to hospitalisation, intensive care & tragically deaths. Pressure on health systems & all care. Situation France 28 Aug.
bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
Those arguing for fewer or lifting of restrictions need to be open about implications for illness, hospitalisation, impact on all health services & health care workers. There are tough decisions to be made, but let us accept the choices & consequences. There are no easy options.
Any suggestion we can have everything,open economy,few restrictions,full mixing,no masks & that choice will not lead to inevitable increase transmission,illness,deaths & pressure health system & #HCW being disingenuous.Face tough choices let us be honest about trade offs & impact

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More from @JeremyFarrar

Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
9 Oct
The tragedy is how predictable this has been since at least early July. It was not inevitable. It is not inevitable now that this worsens, but to avoid spiralling out of control needs to be action now. We are close to or at events & choices of 13-23 March.
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
More data always useful, but don't try & bring more precision to public health interventions than a highly complex system allows. If strategy is to reduce r<1, transmission, hospitalisations,deaths,pressure NHS directly & indirectly it will need package of interventions now.
We are back to choices faced in the early March. With the lag time between making a decision, its implementation & its effect measured in weeks the longer the decisions are delayed the harder & more draconian are the interventions needed to change trajectory of epidemic curve.
Read 4 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
6 Oct
Great pleasure to join the @isirvAVG Therapeutics Meeting.
Thank you to Alan Hay & Fred Hayden & Organising Committee.
isirv.org/site/images/co…
1) Critical need for therapeutics for COVID19 in prevention, treatment & to halt progression of illness. Understandable focus globally on vaccines but even when we have vaccines we will still need therapeutics (& Diagnostics & Health Systems to make them available).
Always good to remember that for many infectious diseases we do not have vaccines despite many years of great effort & we know therapeutics can play critical role in reducing transmission, burden disease & save lives - HIV, TB, Malaria, Dengue & many others.
Read 18 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
26 Sep
Tomorrow's @thesundaytimes. Data is clear. Political & societal decisions on what to do extraordinary difficult. Very little room for a middle way that keeps things open & also prevents transmission, illness & COVID/NonCOVID deaths. Needs a national debate thetimes.co.uk/article/no-fud…
Not possible keep society & economy open as now & suppress transmission,prevent hospitalisations & deaths COVID & non-COVID & pressure on NHS. Anyone suggesting there are easy political decisions or possible to open society & economy & control epidemic is doing a great disservice
Need urgent national debate & political decisions to be made & fairly binary choice:Open up society & economy but accept higher transmission,hospitalisations & deaths vs further restrictions implemented now, reduce transmission, keep schools open & reduce COVID illnesses & deaths
Read 8 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
24 Sep
Inborn errors of type I IFN immunity in patients with life-threatening COVID-19 science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
The ability to control the initial infection through type I IFN may be so important in COVID and also many other acute viral infections - Flu, Dengue, Yellow Fever, Chik, and others.
Idea that these infections are characterised by inability to control initial infection. As a result of a poor early immune response. Followed later by an exaggerated & uncontrolled response.
Read 5 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
20 Sep
Absolutely right UK as Europe at tipping point. Tipping points not defined by a day they happen over wks as transmission increases. Later functional interventions in place harder & longer they are needed to reduce transmission.Very tough political choices independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
No easy, simple non-disruptive choices. It is simply not possible to have everything open, working, schools/HE/FE back & also reduce transmission & prevent all COVID related and unrelated illness. These are very hard political choices & none are easy.
A "Swedish" model is not that different. Anyone offering simple, easy options, or arguing that everything can be opened up without restrictions & such a choice will have little or no consequence is doing a disservice to society & to the choices that need to be made.
Read 4 tweets
Jeremy Farrar Profile picture
17 Sep
Interesting to be blaming SAGE. Has been clear & in the advice that the UK faced an inevitable increase in community transmission & cases after the summer & needed a fully functional & trusted T-T-I in place. mol.im/a/8744117
Repeatedly since May this from 9th August - "Most urgently, we need to ramp up testing. We are not where we need to be. We must improve contact tracing, so we’re identifying more cases and providing better, faster data locally."
"We need to make it much easier for everyone to get tested, including those who have been in contact with cases or think they might be infected, whether they have symptoms or not."
Read 8 tweets

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