The tragedy is how predictable this has been since at least early July. It was not inevitable. It is not inevitable now that this worsens, but to avoid spiralling out of control needs to be action now. We are close to or at events & choices of 13-23 March.
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
More data always useful, but don't try & bring more precision to public health interventions than a highly complex system allows. If strategy is to reduce r<1, transmission, hospitalisations,deaths,pressure NHS directly & indirectly it will need package of interventions now.
We are back to choices faced in the early March. With the lag time between making a decision, its implementation & its effect measured in weeks the longer the decisions are delayed the harder & more draconian are the interventions needed to change trajectory of epidemic curve.
Don't act slower than the speed of the epidemic, don't get behind an epidemic curve. So much harder to turn that epidemic curve around.
Every day that a decision is delayed or deferred is a decision in itself & in the fast moving dynamic phase of an epidemic any delay has its own consequences.
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