Here's a scatter plot showing (my interpretation) of stated Dancheno "proximate" sources (numbered in interview) vs use in Steele dossier by date. There is pattern and structure that has gone almost entirely unnoticed.
2/ on the evening of June 15, Ivan Vorontsov (S2) and Sergei Abyshev (S1) went drinking with Igor Danchenko (PSS) in Moscow. Vorontsov went to huge St Petersburg economic conference the next day (which, ironically, Millian attended). Igor stayed in Moscow.
3/ S1 and S2 were both described by PSS as sources for Report 80, the first ("pee tape") report, which I believe to have been primarily fabricated into very embellished and fraudulent document in Steele's office based on context from Danchenko. Danchenko also told FBI that
4/ S1 and S2 were sources for #86, a uninformative report on Russian hacking dated Jul 26, published after Wikileaks drop. It was a pastiche of gossip from S1 and S2 from June drinking, open source info and past Danchenko gossip with hacker friend from Perm, embellished by Steele
5/ structurally, the important thing is that S1 and S2 do not appear to be contemporary sources for ANY subsquent reports. Two idiosyncratic September reports (112-Alfa; 113- Trump in St Petersburg) are candidates, but dont IMO indicate contemporary sourcing from either
6/ S4 (Dundich), described by Danchenko in his interview as a key source, is not a source for any Steele dossier reports. Maybe he was used in prior Ukraine reporting in 2014-2015.
7/ S5 (Podobedova), an RBC reported, is source for only one (untrue) factoid: supposed meeting between Page and Sechin. She confirmed by text to Danchenko on Oct 15. Danchenko gave text to FBI. Steele appears to have wildly embellished and fabricated details about commission.
8/ she is also plausibly the source of similar information in Report 94, dated July 19 - a detail that was widely disseminated prior to publication of Steele dossier, including by Brennan who claimed not to have been in possession of Steele information.
9/ we know that Danchenko chatted with S3 (Galkina) by cell phone while at a public swimming pool just prior to publication of Report 94. Probably at Volta Pool or Francis Pool in Georgetown on Jul 16.
10/ so it's possible that one or more intel services were listening to a presumably similar conversation between Podobedova (S5) and Danchenko on or about July 16. At the time, Podobedova was being sued by Sechin and Rosneft for a supposedly defamatory article.
11/ one can picture an ironic situation where Podobedova and Galkina, both suspicious, were being surveilled by Russian intel services in Russia while equally suspicious Danchenko was being surveilled by CIA. Or vice versa. Or all of the above.
11/ in any event, other than this single false factoid, S5 (Podobedova) was not a source for anything.
12/ S6 (pseudo-Millian) was not part of Danchenko's Russian network (all of whom he knew very well or rather well), but a US surveillance target resulting from Steele's direction to Danchenko to locate sources in Trump campaign. Danchenko did not ever meet Millian.
13/ Danchenko's only contacts with Millian were emails on July 21 and August 18, both seeking an interview under false pretences. These dates bracket three Steele reports, in which "Millian" is stated to be the source. These reports - which include the most explosive allegation
14/ of collusion between Trump campaign and Russian intel services in which Russia agreed to hack DNC and publish at Wikileaks in exchange for sanctions relief - appear from July 28 to Aug 10.
15/ these reports all appear to have been fabicated in Steele's office to satisfy demand from DNC. None appear to have any sourcing from Danchenko's ramshackle Russian network.
16/ in this diagram, I have not shown "Millian" as a source for Report 80, even tho Steele told FBI that Millian was its Source D. It seems clear that Danchenko's source for pee tape was Vorontsov who said it was an unconfirmed rumor, which Steele fabricated into a "confirmed"
17/ story from Source D who was probably originally intended by Steele as a frame for someone in the Agalarov camp, but later re-purposed into anothe frame against Millian.
18/ despite the huge importance of "Millian" in Steele dossier reports in late July-early August, S6 disappears immediately afterwards.
19/Steele was in America when Report 95 was published (Jul 28). We know this because he (and perhaps Kieran Porter) had breakfast with Bruce and Nellie Ohr on Jul 29 and, in afternoon, he met with Michael Sussmann of Perkins Coie on Alfa Bank hoax. We don't know bracketing dates
20/ subsequently, Danchenko's only active source was Olga Galkina, his long-time BFF who he had known since 8th grade at English Language School #7 in Perm. Galkina was then living in Cyprus, where she was working in public relations for web server company.
21/ nonetheless, the US intel community, on its face, purported to believe that Galkina and Danchenko were providing inside information on innermost thoughts of Sergei Ivanov and Dmitri Peskov and Putin administration that had otherwise eluded CIA and intel community.
22/ Danchenko's "network" looked ramshackle even at first glance. But at second glance, when its structure is analysed, looks even flimsier. Most of his "sources" contributed little to nothing.
23/ but the big issue in analysis is not even Danchenko's network, but how Danchenko's information was embellished and fabricated by Steele's office. It does not appear to me that the information actually provided by Danchenko to Steele was damaging to Trump.
24/ it appears to me that Danchenko's information provided a framework onto which Steele's office inserted wildly embellished fabrications which were damaging. We've discussed this in the past, and I plan to write up in more detail.

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More from @ClimateAudit

7 Oct
always lots of debate about US COVID numbers. Here's how I like to look at data: three panels: daily NewCases, hospitalizedCurrently and daily NewDeaths. Decline in NewCases and hospitalized in summer has seemingly stalled. Reason interesting, Image
2/ first wave was in NY, NJ area which subsided after ~8 weeks; then 2nd wave in southern states (FL,AZ, TX shown here). It had very similar case pattern but much lower hospitalizations and deaths. So why hasn't overall data also diminished as 2nd wave dissipates? Image
3/ there's a third pulse in more "remote" states in northern plains and midwest: ND, SD, MT, UT; also WI. Since populations small, 3rd pulse led to much lesser national increase. Even lower hospitalizations and deaths thus far then 2nd pulse, much lower than 1st pulse. Image
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
@shipwreckedcrew problem with your argument is there was real distinction betw sanctions and expulsions, which was important and relevant to Flynn. In his only contemporary interview (Feb 15, 2017), he readily admitted that he had discussed expulsions, but vehemently denied discussing sanctions.
@shipwreckedcrew 2/ this interview was in response to blockbuster WaPo article which, based on conversations with /893/ anonymous officials in a position to know, said that Flynn had specifically discussed sanctions.
@shipwreckedcrew 3/ Flynn was not guilty of lying about "US Sanctions" as defined in Statement of Offense. At the time, for various reasons, Flynn seems to have assumed that, despite his memory otherwise, the government must have had transcripts showing that he had discussed US Sanctions
Read 9 tweets
29 Sep
recent Barr letter on Danchenko contained unredaction of Horowitz Footnote 334, which commented on claim that "Steele himself was not the originating source of any of the factual information in his reporting". What does this actually mean? Is it true? Image
2/ as someone who's studied this very closely, it seems virtually certain to me that many details in the Steele dossier, including nearly all of the details of interest, did NOT originate with the PSS, but were embellishments or fabrications introduced in Steele's writeup.
3/ Was Horowitz archly trolling readers by his use of the term "factual information" (as opposed to more generic term of (say) details in the Steele dossier. I.e. anything that was true did not originate with Steele. But I really don't think that Horowitz was being that cute.
Read 10 tweets
29 Sep
in 2008, Danchenko, according to his now deleted CV archive.is/rK4M6, while at Georgetown and Brookings, also did an assignment for Jane's, now a subsidiary of IHS Markit, which annually publishes Jane's Fighting Ships en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jane%27s_…
2/ in the recent Barr letter, the FBI reported that, in their prior investigation, one of Danchenko's associates (presumably at Brookings) said that he "persistently asked about" their knowledge of a particular military vessel.
3/ in the spirit of an aluminum tube not necessarily being evidence of WMD - a possibility insufficiently scrutinized by Colin Powell, is it possible that Danchenko's inquiry about military vessel was to make money from Jane's, as opposed to spying for Russia?
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
I'm re-examining what was unredacted in April. Here's a small but interesting point clarified when Danchenko network unrolled. FN 347 refers to Olga Galkina, Danchenko's longtime BFF from Perm, who had very active social media presence.
2/ Danchenko identified Galkina as Source 3 in his Jan 2017 interview. Unredaction of FN 347 says that "FBI received information in **early June 2017** which revealed that, among other things, there were.. personal and business ties between the sub-source" and Primary Sub-Source.
3/ but Danchenko interview in **January** 2017 already disclosed that Danchenko and Galkina had been friends since the 8th grade in Perm.
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
Recommend that you treat it as an audio, not a video. My camera angle is offcenter and I move around too much. But if you listen to it like radio program, it's better.
we discuss the recent news that FBI and intel community concealed information about 2009-11 suspicions of Danchenko, even preparation of FISA application, in ICA, thereby enabling inclusion of Steele dossier info into ICA, thus fomenting resistance.
Read 10 tweets

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