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6 Oct, 8 tweets, 3 min read
14,542 cases reported just now is double the number reported a week ago... by specimen date was above 12,000 on three consecutive days ... wed- Friday last week...
By specimen date:

Cases doubled over 7 days from Vallance chart number (3105 15/9) to 22 September (6,410)
Nearly doubled again over next 8 days. (30 September 12,382).

Hopefully pattern won’t persist, if it does Vallance chart will only be out by less than a week
It was pointed out to me privately, by someone who knows, that the numbers, if anything, are lower than they should be, because testing has been lab capacity supply constrained. Ie those logging on to the website unable to get a test or a local one, who give up trying to get one.
Some interesting maths here on the relationship between cases and hospital admissions, and then hospital admissions and deaths 👇🏽

Yes best case, these spikes are concentrated in student areas and associated with the return to university & schools, and this tapers off and doesn’t continue doubling in first half of October... but clearly cant tell yet
After all, a lot of the guff and alleged wizardry you hear touted around AI, machine learning and Big Data boils down to the fact that - its just basic statistics, and in particular regression analysis of the sort done here by @gilesyb
Latest figures. 14,162 reported today.
By specimen date it was 13k a day Thursday/Friday last week. Basically 10k plus for 7 days straight from last Monday. 7 day average 10,779.
Latest figures positive cases reported continue to climb - today up 17,540...

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
8 Oct
Government about to announce new facilities for inland customs, regulatory veterinary checks in Kent at Ebbsfleet, at Holyhead and north Weald. A transit facility in Warrington, and further sites sought too.
New 138 pg “Border Operating Model” detailing post single market & customs unions checks/ paperwork/ formalities and how are to be carried out on previously seamless GB-EU border, now published. Govt still concerned about trader preparedness for Jan 1: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Detail new “inland clearance sites” for Jan where EU imports that need wet stamp on carnet, or under transit, or under traffic management will occur, “where ports do not have the space”
Ebbsfleet International
North Weald Airfield
Sevington
Warrington

Dover, Holyhead by July Image
Read 10 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
8 Oct
The pandemic contours of this critical election are now:

Biden - masks matter, its a patriotic duty to help stop the spread, federal mandate to stop spread.

Trump - Going to distribute the experimental “cure” that I took for free for everyone, once we fast-track authorisation.
Regeneron has only had early trials in 275 humans (+ POTUS)...
Hopefully there are sufficient Chinese hamsters, or equivalent:

“The companies then put the genes in Chinese hamster ovary cells to bulk manufacture the antibodies, which were given to the COVID-19 patients as infusions”. sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/p…
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
8 Oct
From the @ONS footfall falling below 70% of level last year, having nearly reached 80% last month and falling again in all regions/ nations, Wales the most. High Street index heading back towards 50% ImageImage
Car traffic slightly decreasing too in latest week .. overall levels of traffic 9% below pre pandemic. Image
Car figures in past week corroborated by traffic camera data - a little down in London and NE. Bus journeys stable. But more noticeable falls in pedestrian and cyclist numbers eg in London and NE: Image
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
6 Oct
After President Trump campaigned in 2016 to bring down the US trade deficit with rest of world, final set of US trade figures before election shows

- US goods and services trade deficit in August at its highest monthly level since 2006

- goods trade deficit at a monthly record
... which is not to endorse it as an actual symbol of economic health, but the US trade deficit for 2020 on course to be larger than 2016. And the ‘phase 1’ agreement with China for it to purchase more from US is not on target ...
In those monthly figures the squeeze on the US deficit with China continues - after the Trump tariffs, but US consumers have simply substituted imports from elsewhere - record from Mexico, German, Japanese imports up etc
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
6 Oct
Covid has led to an “expansion of the role of the state that goes against our instincts”

PM says “continuing furlough forever” keeps “people in suspended animation” and says Opposition sees state expansion as welcome and wants to spend “half our national income”...
Notably small reference to Brexit - eg no mention of no deal/ Australian terms etc.

PM paints vision of a cosmopolitan country in charge of its own fisheries and laws, where you use a “blue Brexit passport” having jetted in on a low carbon jet and get an EV taxi.
Trying to get details on 95% mortgage guarantee push...

“Fix broken housing market”...“transforming sclerotic planning ... not enough”

Giving chance for young first time buyers to take long term fixed rate mortgages up to 95%, vastly reducing deposit... could create 2m more o-o
Read 11 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
5 Oct
appears really quite significant...

1. This is Japanese HQs talking, not local management

2. Asking for something not legal under WTO rules, which they know - so sending broader message

Comes after our story last week of Frost letter saying “cant insist on” third country parts
Some context: Informal suggestions were made on reimbursing UK-EU tariff costs to Japanese manufacturers who had invested over decades on basis of seamless access to EU single market, as far back as 4 years ago, but back then they told the Government it would be illegal under WTO
A multi-company Japan HQ ask of UK Government has car industry insiders suspecting that Japan’s formidable METI ministry would have known about it too. Certainly, many of the very same issues as first raised in Japan’s post referendum pre 2016 G20 letter, are now materialising
Read 5 tweets

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