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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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8 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The pandemic contours of this critical election are now:

Biden - masks matter, its a patriotic duty to help stop the spread, federal mandate to stop spread.

Trump - Going to distribute the experimental “cure” that I took for free for everyone, once we fast-track authorisation.
Regeneron has only had early trials in 275 humans (+ POTUS)...
Hopefully there are sufficient Chinese hamsters, or equivalent:

“The companies then put the genes in Chinese hamster ovary cells to bulk manufacture the antibodies, which were given to the COVID-19 patients as infusions”. sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/p…
Eli- Lilly, as POTUS mentioned, are trialing similar monoclonal antibodies (reference to polyclonal was what WH statement said, but that wasn’t right)... but so are AstraZeneca here, well before got involved in the Oxford vaccine, indeed chief exec spoke to me about it in April

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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
9 Oct
Big intervention from top Sage scientist - likening current situation to the delayed action in early March - shows the conflicting pressures the Govt under to act very quickly:
A very interesting World Bank study of economy/ health trade-offs across 49 countries in first half of 2020...

Total cases had biggest negative impact, more than “lockdown stringency”, then exposure to tourism.

Total tests (per million) correlated positively.

HT @Birdyword Image
Obv correlation not causality, but clearly effective testing regimes improves the trade off between health and economy by allowing more targeted restrictions - which should be where UK is around now
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
9 Oct
Economy grew by 2.1% in August, the beginning of Eat Out to Help Out, slowest month of positive growth since the sharp shutdown falls, and about half expectations, 9.2% smaller than size of economy pre pandemic. Services & restaurants up. Three month growth rate now positive - 8% Image
“The chancellor will be setting out the next stage of the Job Support scheme later today that will protect jobs and provide a safety net for those businesses that may have to close in the coming weeks and months.” Says Treasury...
This was the GM Mayor yesterday on BBCQT demanding a “full local furlough scheme”
Read 8 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
8 Oct
Well - that’ll be Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross MP linesman at Wembley Image
He was indeed put on the FIFA assistant referees list by the SFA in December - scottishfa.co.uk/news/fifa-nomi…
Ross down on uefa website as linesman for Luxembourg-cyprus nations league on Saturday too - which is interesting as Lux not on exempt list, & Govt advises against all but essential travel because of Covid, so ordinarily would require isolation on return uefa.com/uefanationslea…
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
8 Oct
Government about to announce new facilities for inland customs, regulatory veterinary checks in Kent at Ebbsfleet, at Holyhead and north Weald. A transit facility in Warrington, and further sites sought too.
New 138 pg “Border Operating Model” detailing post single market & customs unions checks/ paperwork/ formalities and how are to be carried out on previously seamless GB-EU border, now published. Govt still concerned about trader preparedness for Jan 1: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Detail new “inland clearance sites” for Jan where EU imports that need wet stamp on carnet, or under transit, or under traffic management will occur, “where ports do not have the space”
Ebbsfleet International
North Weald Airfield
Sevington
Warrington

Dover, Holyhead by July
Read 10 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
8 Oct
From the @ONS footfall falling below 70% of level last year, having nearly reached 80% last month and falling again in all regions/ nations, Wales the most. High Street index heading back towards 50%
Car traffic slightly decreasing too in latest week .. overall levels of traffic 9% below pre pandemic.
Car figures in past week corroborated by traffic camera data - a little down in London and NE. Bus journeys stable. But more noticeable falls in pedestrian and cyclist numbers eg in London and NE:
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
6 Oct
14,542 cases reported just now is double the number reported a week ago... by specimen date was above 12,000 on three consecutive days ... wed- Friday last week...
By specimen date:

Cases doubled over 7 days from Vallance chart number (3105 15/9) to 22 September (6,410)
Nearly doubled again over next 8 days. (30 September 12,382).

Hopefully pattern won’t persist, if it does Vallance chart will only be out by less than a week
It was pointed out to me privately, by someone who knows, that the numbers, if anything, are lower than they should be, because testing has been lab capacity supply constrained. Ie those logging on to the website unable to get a test or a local one, who give up trying to get one.
Read 8 tweets

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