Thread by @maxbergmann

I've been thinking a lot about Trump's potential October surprise and the possible impact... and I struggle to see how another Russian hack/email dump and Barr/DOJ release...has anywhere close to the same impact as in 16. Thread. 1/

For one, the press get it now. In 2016 the press missed the huge shocking story staring them in the face: Russia was intervening in our election. And instead saw the email dump as "leaks." The Sunday shows on October 9th 2016 were shocking. 2/ amazon.com/Cyberwar-Russi…

This gave Clinton a month of damaging stories, a kin to a daily shelling, with some having a real impact. Trump for example ginned up a whole campaign saying Clinton was anti-Catholic based off a warped reading of a Podesta email exchange. 3/ vox.com/2018/4/25/1721…

When the DNI leaked bogus Russia disinfo last week... Politico didn't run the story they hoped (HRC ordered some false flag) and went with the actual story: DNI pushes Russian disinfo to help Trump.

We've built up a degree of resiliency. 4/ politico.com/news/2020/09/2…

Additionally, there was an element of luck in 2016. Comey's letter about Hillary's emails amplified Podesta's emails. The public didn't treat these as separate email issues. It was all just "emails" and made it seem like something corrupt. A month of WL emails amplified Comey. 5/

Furthermore, this time the press don't have it out for Biden in the maniacal way they did for HRC, where they always just assumed the worst. Hence, BS Trump/Russian efforts on Hunter Biden-Burisma and other weird allegations just aren't landing on Biden, who is a known entity. 6/

The press also thought Clinton was going to be president and Trump was just a weird anomaly and wasn't worth paying attention to. Hence there was hyper-scrutiny of Clinton but little media effort to expose Trump or look into his business. The race in the end was about Clinton. 7/

That's obviously not the case now. It's about Trump. And the October surprises that are landing are about Trump; his taxes and former officials coming out with shocking details about him and his administration.

There are likely more revelations coming about Trump. 8/

Nevertheless, we can totally expect some release of stolen hacked material disparaging of Biden. Perhaps a deep fake. A forged document. Etc. But I think no matter what it won't be as clean a hit as it was in 2016. 9/

Don't get me wrong. The press won't be able to restrain themselves if it appears juicy. But unlike in 16 it will also be reported on as foreign interference to help Trump - that component will be a key part of the story. 10/

The press will also be barraged as being "useful idiots" if they credulously make a huge deal of stolen content.

In short the work folks have done highlighting Russian interference has raised awareness and made it harder for these types of efforts to succeed. 11/

Lastly, while Trump will be desperate to recreate the impact of the Comey letter, I just can't see anything that Barr/Durham does over the next month having nearly the impact. 12/

Comey had a huge impact because he had credibility. But Trump and Barr light their credibility on fire every day. If Barr/Durham announce some indictment vs. an Obama era official or release some finding no one will believe this isn't political. The story will be... 13/

OMG the AG of the US is using the DOJ to pursue political opponents to help the President win the election.

The story will be Barr's actions not the substance of whatever he claims.

You'll get the headlines politico just had with the DNI pushing Russian disinfo. 14/

The greater fear is what the Russians might try to do on election day or after to undermine the elections. Since w/ Trump there is little to deter them.

But in the meantime though, while a Russian release may be likely, it's tough to see how it c/d turn things around for Trump.