One of the unique aspects of doing work on China is how ready everyone is to claim the "China exclusion". Let me give you two examples. People will argue it is nationalist, racist, and all kinds of other -isms to say Chinese companies should be blocked from listing in 1/n
In the United States. The plain fact of the matter is that Chinese companies with help from China are absolutely refusing to follow black letter law about securities offering requirements. People arguing that we should allow Chinese companies to list are literally arguing 2/n
We should ignore US securities law almost exclusively for Chinese companies. The "China exclusion". Let me give you another example. Universities and political science professors will talk at length about foreign interference and disinformation and rightfully so. 3/n
Ask them to ensure their own universities and departments are following the laws for foreign donations and we get the politician and China response: trust me. One of the biggest changes in all things China is that most of the changes are not legal but actually enforcing 4/n
Existing laws and applying them to all parties. We absolutely should demand of political leaders that they not have foreign conflicts of interest even potentially. Whether it is securities markets of universities, we need to apply those same standards to our own industries 5/n
or profession. Again, this is not even about treating China better or worse. It is simply treating China like all other countries and participants in an activity and applying those counter party standards upon politicians, securities markets, and universities. Just the same.
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War and Peace is considered Tolstoy's master piece and by some the greatest novel of all time. It is truly a master piece. The philosophical point of the book is summed up in the second epilogue... not the first one. In it Tolstoy speaks to man's hubris as generals believe 1/n
They sit astride history moving the fortune of war with their decisions. Tolstoy argued in reality, history was much less predictable with events being decided by thousands of small decisions outside the control of rulers. It is easy to believe in our data driven age this 2/n
Changed despite lacking strong supporting evidence. The US economy largely preforms the same regardless of political party. ACA has not fundamentally changed American health outcomes. We can't explain why observable data like mobility is so tightly correlated but corona 3/n
This is truly Kafka-esque and nothing more than hostage taking economic policy by China and it seems pretty pointless. Let's state at the outset that yes there is a case by almost any national regulator to pursue an anti trust case against Google. However, and this is big 1/n
Because Google is blocked in China, it's not really clear what measures they could impose upon Google or pursue remedies. In other words, China files the case, wins of course, what happens next? They block Google even more? Interestingly, the case was filed by Huawei over 2/n
Android which is really reeks of desperation. Huawei has no replacement which they have been promising the world for years so they bring a case against Google. So Huawei wins it's case against Google. What's it going to do? Stop using Android? Final point, Huawei PR is built 3/n
There is actually a very interesting dynamic being set up. Follow me a second. According to the released terms of the deal, it seems like multiple parties (if the terms are believed) drove hard bargains. TikTok raises the valuation and maintains significant direct ownership 1/n
And does US IPO. That's great for them. Given the circumstances that's a good deal. US gets total access to source code, algorithms, data localization & security etc. That's what they wanted. Oracle and Walmart get into rapidly growing sector that seems to complement their 2/n
Underlying businesses of cloud, payments, and retail well. The VCs and princelings get a great short term exit strategy. All parties are getting a significant piece of what they wanted out of this deal. You can just tell I'm leading up to something can't you. 3/n
One of the most common questions about the open source data I have received is: it is open source data what could they do with this information? I understand why this question is asked so let me lay out a couple of things launching from this thread about the United Front 1/n
First, understand that the database is already a curated list of influential individuals. They may be influential by their position (such as a prime minister) or by where they are positioned (unknown but working in an important tech lab). The database is already curated 2/n
Second, the database provides more than enough information to draw up a profile or human terrain of an industry, who surrounds the individual you need to get to, where a person is or will be, or who is likely to have access to intellectual property or a decision maker. 3/n
I work hard to avoid RTing anything by this trash outlet and the good CCP propaganda soldiers of the Global Times but for numerous reasons in this case I will make an exception. First, I really should feel hurt that haven't called me names I can put on my Twitter profile. 1/n
Second, this article is really is really a beautiful article in a very twisted way. What I mean by that is the article is actually very serious in tone and language indicating they take the threat of what has been done very serious. As a reader, this signals that 2/n
You should take their words seriously rather than GT typical rhetoric. Next, their logic is very subtly perverse but acceptable to a casual reader. For instance, they say they collect only information that is public. (As a side note that is not true but leave that aside) 3/n