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Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
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6 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Another declaration on 'herd immunity' signed by Sunetra Gupta(Oxford), Jay Bhattacharya (Stanford) & Martin Kulldorff(Harvard) who don't have a single peer reviewed publication on covid-19 epidemiology between them

Can we stop platforming pseudoscience?

theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
And these are not experts, or researchers who have provided any evidence to support their damaging views. If you want experts, there are so many around - who are basing their views on the actual evidence. There is zero evidence to support a 'herd immunity' based strategy.
@iansample - while I appreciate comments from actual experts like @trishgreenhalgh and @BillHanage are included, the way the piece is set seems to suggest these are equally valid opinions from equals in a field. This couldn't be further from the truth.
We need the media to do better in this regard. @BillHanage and @trishgreenhalgh are respected scientists, with several peer-reviewed publications on COVID-19 transmission and epidemiology, and consistent evidence to back their views. While the authors of the letter have none.
This should be clarified in the article & these opinions should not be treated as equal in any way. We are dealing with a lot of misinformation around COVID-19 which is undermining public trust, and collective action against a huge threat to society. The media needs to do better.

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More from @dgurdasani1

Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
24 Aug
Given the recent public statements by several govt advisors regarding opening of schools, here's a thread on evidence around COVID in children:

The govt (& UK scientific 'experts') have recently cited findings from the recent PHE study as suggesting school openings are safe 1/N
The study does not in fact show this at all. It essentially collates data on results from test & trace during the period when schools were opened in June - when only ~7% of students attended. There are several key limitations of this work:
1. Given the attendance was a fraction of normal attendance, we cannot possibly extrapolate what this will mean for when schools fully open from this study. 3/N
Read 21 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
30 Jun
This is exactly the problem. Not only is pillar 2 data not available publicly, it's also not available to local authorities, making it impossible to identify what's causing this outbreak, or even where it is spatially. 1/N
Outsourcing testing to private companies has meant that surveillance data aren't joined up centrally. This means that:
1. There's a significant delay in identifying outbreaks- as we saw in Leicester
2. When these are identified, we have no idea of where clusters of infection are
We're essentially trying to put out localised fires we can't see by using general lockdown measures. The whole point of test, trace and isolate was to be able to identify local outbreaks and take focused measures to contain them.
Read 10 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
28 May
After having over three months to prepare, the government test & trace strategy appears really poorly thought out. Here's a thread about the gaps between a successful test, trace & isolate strategy and what the govt appears to be doing.

theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
1. The success of test, trace & isolate is firstly dependent on the turnover time of testing- ideally this should be less than 1 day. It is very unclear what the actual testing capacity in the UK actually is, as stats around this are deliberately opaque.
theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
2. It's dependent on the ability to trace contacts. This is not a simple endeavour- it needs public health expertise, and experience with local communities, as well as trust. It makes no sense that the govt has outsourced this to commercial companies that lack any expertise.
Read 18 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
16 May
A brief thread about why this is a dangerous time to be opening schools in the UK - and why the narratives around this being reasonable just because R is below 1 don't make sense.
As of yesterday, the govt reported 384 deaths from COVID-19. R determines the slope of decline or increase in cases & therefore, deaths from this point. If the R is above 1, we see exponential rises. The level to which R falls below 1 determines the gradient or speed of decline.
While we are seeing daily decline in deaths within the UK, this has been gradual. At this point, the government policy should be to reduce R as far as possible to bring the number of new cases down to very low levels. Why does this matter?
Read 13 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
2 May
Today's press briefing - Harries asked about the possible lack of long-term immunity to COVID-19, which may have implications for vaccination & reinfection. Harries says antibody tests will make this clearer (this is not necessarily the case - as Abs are not always neutralising)
She says she's still hopeful about a vaccine. Mentions that elderly people may not mount a robust antibody response. Puts into context all the decisions that have been made based on 'herd immunity' so far. This may not even be possible - understanding this needs a lot more work.
First antibody tests are generally poor at the moment- lots of cross-reactivity with antibodies against other viruses. Second, the presence of antibodies, does not mean that re-infection isn't possible, because these may not effectively neutralise the virus.
Read 20 tweets
Deepti Gurdasani Profile picture
26 Apr
Very confusing responses at the press briefing today. Asked about criticisms regarding lack of public health officials in SAGE, Eustice says that although SAGE member names cannot be published, the minutes from SAGE meetings are publicly available. Is this true?
Until now, we've been told that minutes won't released until after the outbreak. He asks Powis to comment on this, who appears to sidestep this point completely. Can someone verify whether SAGE minutes have been made publicly available?
Powis asked about evidence for claims that cases in care homes are declining in line with cases across the country. Question not addressed. Would be good to see any studies informing this evidence, given active testing not ongoing in care homes.
Read 10 tweets

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