1) Nuggets from Joseph Cotto’s interview of Patrick Basham of Democracy Institute. A DI poll showed Trump winning nationally and in the Electoral College:

Basham addressed why Trump’s national lead went from +3 to +1 and why Trump’s Battleground State lead went from +7 to +4.
2) It was because Democracy Institute shifted from a 2-way to a 4-way race. He believes some are “parking their votes” with 3rd-party candidates. He senses some of these will move back to Trump or Biden, with more going to Trump. He also thinks more undecideds will go for Trump.
3) Believes in the “SHY TRUMP VOTER”:
“The shy Trump voter is not only real it is larger than last time.”

Is not just a rural voter under a haystack:
“The shy Trump voter is much more likely to be in fact . . . an African American in an urban setting. A Suburban white woman.”
4) “Those are votes for Trump that if they come in are going to surprise people because they are the ones who are least expected to support him.”

There is even a shy Trump vote in MD-7 (Kim Klacik district)

Says Klacik is doing great in the race.


“We believe . . . there are going to be significantly fewer younger voters.”

“We think there will be at least a million fewer votes from that group in total.”

New Hampshire is a mini-Minnesota. The war and peace issue is big in NH. NH likes Trump's refusal to go to war.

Trump is “in very very good shape there [NH].”
7) Basham is confident Trump will win Florida. Trump can’t take FL for granted but, “Florida at the moment is bordering on comfortable for Trump.”

He believes Florida is getting beyond Biden’s grasp.
8) “There will be a greater number of Trump Democrats in 2020.”

Trump is leading in Minn. and Penn.

Thanks to “Cotto/Gottfried” for the interview. Watch and consider subscribing:

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More from @PollWatch2020

6 Oct
1) Some quick-hitting nuggets from “Inside the Numbers” today (my paraphrased words). Be sure to watch for full context:

Baris to be polling Pennsylvania very soon. When Big Data Poll polled the Rust Belt for The Epoch Times a couple weeks ago Trump had a tiny lead in PA.
2) Trump was within 2% in Michigan. Wisconsin was Biden’s strongest RB state then.

Will pay close attention to Bucks County. Hillary won by 2% in 2016. But two weeks ago Trump was up 2% (49 to 47).
3) Trump is leading overall if the electorate is fairly normal. But pollsters are counting on huge new voter turnout with majority breaking for Dems (very skeptical of this)

Baris polled FL a week ago. Trump has a small but solid lead in Florida (+1.5).
Read 4 tweets
5 Sep
1) The straightest path for a Trump Electoral College win comes down to 7 states:

Winning the Core 3 of FL, NC, and AZ.
Winning 1 of MN, WI, MI, or PA.

If the election were today I think this "Core 3 +1" scenario would happen.

(If lost AZ, then two of MN, WI, MI, or PA works)
2) This is not to say that Trump could not win 2, 3, or 4 of MN, WI, MI, PA, or even New Hampshire. I'm just discussing the cleanest, easiest path to 270. (I realize a loss in AZ with wins in MN and WI means 269).
3) I like studying national polls too, but these seven states of FL, NC, AZ, MN, WI, MI, and PA are what I am most interested in. It would be fantastic if there was a battleground poll of these 7 states done by a quality pollster (not a Big Media pollster).
Read 5 tweets

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