Thread by @ikkmurugan

Why will DMK not win 2021 Assembly Elections: No Politics Just Data

DMK’s vote share has seen the best and the worst in the last 30 years. The best is 42.1% in 1996 (TMC and Rajini factor) and worst is 22.4% in 2011. In 1991 they were not in alliance with INC but were in 2011.

In 1991 their vote share was 22.5% and they won 2 seats. In 2011 their vote share was 22.4% but they won 23 seats. The only difference in these 2 elections was INC. when DMK had alliance with INC with same percentage vote share their chance of winning increased.

2006, last time when DMK formed the government they did not actually win the election basis of vote bank. Only because they had the numbers to form Govt. They managed just 26.5% vote share. Who spoiled their chance, DMDK - They got 8.5% votes in that election.

DMDK siding with ADMK in 2011 and ADMK winning 2016 election single handedly are known facts. Has DMK’s vote share improved in these 2 elections. Yes it has improved. From 22.4% it has scaled up to 32.1%. Why this difference? DMDK came down to 2.4%

Over the last 30 years congress has lost prominence slowly in the state. They currently have a 6% vote share. DMK has benefited in the increase of vote share contributing to the rise and fall of DMDK. We have 3 DMDK type parties now; NTK, MNM and Rajini (if he decides).

If these 3 independently contest it will hamper DMK’s chances of getting anything more than 22% votes. Congress was an ally which assured victory in 90s; Then came TMC in the mid 90s; Then DMDK in the mid 2000s; They have always contributed to both rise and fall.

And with the rising popularity of BJP in TN, surge in first time voters will only makes this race a difficult one for DMK. Every time there is a popular third front, DMK’s vote bank is affected badly. Those who aren’t happy with ADMK normally vote for DMK. That’s not the case now

@threadreaderapp unroll