Thread by @charles_gaba

THREAD: The other day @paulkrugman correctly noted that assuming the Trump/GOP lawsuit to strike down the #ACA fails, @JoeBiden's healthcare proposal (which basically amounts to #ACA2wPO) would be a Big F*cking Deal: nytimes.com/2020/10/05/opi… 1/

Krugman notes that most of the #BidenCare focus has been on the Public Option which "in the near term would be much less important than other aspects of the plan."

The "other parts" he's referring to are primarily the "ACA 2.0" parts which I've been calling for for years. 2/

As I noted in my updated analysis of #BidenCare, while there's a LOT going on in his plan, the parts Krugman refers to include killing the subsidy cliff, beefing up the subsidies, upgrading from silver to gold & autoenrolling low-income folks: 3/
acasignups.net/20/07/23/biden…

Regular readers know I spent a LOT of time last year running the numbers to show how much folks would save under the *House* #ACA2.0 bill, which does the first two but not the latter two. They passed an even more robust version, #HR1425, in July: 4/ acasignups.net/20/06/24/aca20…

For #BidenCare, I attempted to run the numbers the same way. It's a bit trickier because of the benchmark upgrade from Silver to Gold, but overall, I came up w/the following examples (again, these are based on national averages & would vary widely by state/county): 5/

1. a single 30-yr old would save up to $4,400/yr vs. the current #ACA formula.

If they earn $20K/yr, they'd go from paying $74/mo to $7/mo.

If they earn $50K they'd go from spending $410 w/a $4,500 deductible to $346 w/a $1,500 deductible. 6/

2. a single 60-yr old would save up to $9,600/yr vs. the current #ACA formula.

If they earn $40K they'd go from $329/mo w/$4,500 deductible to $212/mo w/$1,500 deductible.

If they earn $60K they'd go from $981/mo w/$4,500 deductible to $426/mo w/$1,500 deductible. 7/

3. a family of four (40 yr old parents) would save up to $14,000/yr vs. the current #ACA formula.

If they earn $60K, premiums would drop from $383/mo to $181/mo & deductible from $7,200 to $3,000.

At $120K, premiums would drop from $1,477 to $852; deductible from $9K to $3K.

4. Finally, a 60-yr old couple would save up to $23,000/year or more (over $17K in premiums + $6K reduced deductible)

That is not a typo.

Again, these are fairly crude estimates on my part. The folks at @KFF who have more manpower & resources than I do have put together an in-depth savings estimator for #BidenCare:

kff.org/health-reform/…

I plugged in a single 60-yr old @$40K/yr living in Oakland County, MI and got the following.

I pegged it at $329 before / $212 after (national avg), so it's pretty close.

Same 60-yr old at $60K/yr: I pegged it at $981 vs. $426 nationally.

@KFF's estimator puts it at $722 vs. $$425 in Oakland County, MI specifically. Again, it'd vary widely by county, state & household situation:

There’s a lot of other important stuff in there as well, including fixing the family glitch, stopping surprise billing, and allowing those with employer coverage to still qualify for ACA subsidies if they want to switch to an exchange plan (including the PO).