I don't relish Lockdown 2.0 - it has huge public/mental health costs: but we are now at a stage where "shut down all pubs in X street until Y time near Z university, but not anywhere near a rich area " doesn't wash. Social solidarity means we're all in it, and all sacrifice....
What I want to hear from epidemiologists is epidemiology: not economics. If the science says lock down again for a limited time, and the economics say that will screw the recovery, let's have a mature democratic debate about the tradeoffs....
We can calibrate the number of delayed elective operations, or the mental health cost, but the cost to democracy of seeing a total breakdown of social solidarity at this point would be great. Politicians should take decisions and put them to parliament/assemblies.
I remain, for the record, convinced the Tories want consent for the lockdown to evaporate: that's their shared agenda with the far right. But I don't think they understand the social consequences as clearly as the fascists do: a permanent pre-Hobbesian regime, all against all.
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What's working/ not working for Labour? 1/ The strategy is right: a radical economic offer plus reconnect with voters over trust, on crime/defence/security and *where possible* refuse Tory culture war provocations... but... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
2/ ... this battle has to be fought in three dimensions: parliament, society and the labour movement. At present, it's only happening in parliament. And not enough: 2nd reading abstentions are read as weak and don't deflect Johnson's culture war jibes... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
3/ ... so the left fears that by its MPs voting on principle it is being edged out of Starmer's coalition. But real battle is not in parliament: Johnson/Cummings are moving rightwards *slower* than parts of their mass base... newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20…
Why the Golden Dawn verdict is important, but not enough. 1/ They were an outlier in European fascism, trying to combine the legal, parliamentary party with squadrismo (and major organised crime). The right-wing coalition government tolerated them; they infiltrated the cops...
2/ Today a member was found guilty of premeditated murder of Pavlos Fyssas; numerous members of consipiracy to murder; and the entire organisation as a criminal organisation... that's the decisive bit. It should now be legally dismantled and the leaders jailed...
3/ But Greek fascism has roots going back to collaborationism in the War, and to the Civil War, and strong Balkan, Russian and international ties... suppressed polls at the highpoint put GD's support at 18%
They used an Excel spreadsheet for T&T when a database would be industry standard? The app was months delayed because of a technologically illiterate initial spec. Why?Because everything is privatised and improvised. Chaos is a ladder for Tories... 1/ It's the same with lockdowns
2/ Local lockdowns being imposed with no common criteria, so that they map exactly onto poverty-stricken former industrial areas. Why? Because with an 80 seat majority there's no accountability....
3/ "Read the local advice" is a very different line from "we the government are telling you to do this"... but Johnson bears responsibility for every needless death that happens because of the confusion...
Let's understand what "offshore refugee processing centres" and "wave machines to deter crossings" are: racist fantasies. They're being floated as ammunition in the culture war by far right ideologues in Whitehall.... 1/
2/ ... so the BBC can ask, credulously, "would this be a good idea?" then interview a bunch of Aussie racists who say, yes, you know what, it would be a good idea... as if this country's commitment to human rights were negotiable...
3/ ... and by mid-morning I can confidently predict a bunch of elderly racists will be spewing hate into the microphones of the talk-radio shows, saying "offshore detention centres are too good for them"....
Now I've watched the whole Trump/Biden debate, some more analysis: to Brits the constant interruptions and hyperbole was not a "shitshow" - we reached this level of scratchiness in 2015: it's a feature of neoliberal nationalism not a glitch... 1/ newstatesman.com/world/2020/09/…
2/ Biden's problem is a) that Trump continually plays left arguments back at him - "superpredator" etc b) he psychologically doesn't want to land the hardest blows: he said Trump's a liar and a clown but his deference to the office made him pull the punch...
3/ Yet Biden did look presidential - not that it matters in a partisan head-count election: he made a conscious attempt to speak to Republican voters...
The first half of this is a decent summary of the Labour leadership's current rationale: the back half - "will LOTO even engage with the left policies of 2017/19?" is the wrong question. Thread 1/ (read it first!) newsocialist.org.uk/transmissions/…
2/ We are facing a solid voting bloc of people who will vote for the Tories - no matter how incompetent or corrupt - so long as they validate racism. It's a new situation. It needs Labour to a) be a bigger tent b) form new political alliances...
3/ The Labour Together election report outlines the de facto strategy: big change offer on economics combined with an attempt to reconnect on Ainsley's 4x values: "family, fairness, decency and hard work" - see my essay medium.com/@paulmasonnews…