Is this where you polled?

If so, no wonder. This is not representative, at all. Sorry, but it isn’t and is why you were wrong in Florida back in 2018, as well.

You straight missed large swathes of voters who are very important.
If that’s the geo participation in the NYT Poll, then at least a significant part of Biden’s lead in them is in no small part nothing more than response bias and an artifact of the polling mode.
1. I'd be embarrassed to tweet maps that show such a distribution.

2. Quinnipiac is not a serious poll, hasn't called an election correctly in years, and wrong in Florida for 5 straight cycles, often grossly. So, please stop asking me what I think about that vs. our Trump +1.6.
In just the latest update, Democrats lost 235, GOP gained 703 registrations in Greene County. That's what I mean by "artifacts" of the polling mode.

Trump carried it with 69% of the vote. In NYT, it's 2 to 1 for Biden.

That's what happens when you only reach school teachers.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

1 Oct
Miller, Trump Campaign: "We do not want any changes from what has been agreed to before the first debate."

"It didn't turn out the way they wanted. That's why they want changes."
Negotiator for Trump confirms Biden campaign requested a mute button for the second debate, but it did not come from the commission and was denied.

Biden campaign also seeking to reduce open discussion segment to "almost nothing" to "control" the forum.

They want no changes.
The Biden campaign requesting a mute button for the next debate reminds me of when "stress cards" came out for basic trainees NOT at Ft. Benning in the Army and we just wanted them to go home so they didn't get us killed.
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
Thread on Florida Poll: Here's the mid-September 2018 survey we did on the gubernatorial and senatorial elections.

Notice the undecided vote among indies, and their allocated vote shares.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
That's about as comparable as we can get because we didn't poll the "exact" time period and duration back then as now.

But now look at the same two now in Florida.

Strikingly similar.

Btw, much larger enthusiasm gap for GOP.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Indies aren't at all comfortable sharing their political beliefs with others, including pollsters, which stems from more conservative-leaning indies.

By age group, it's even more striking. Overall, appx. one-third are slightly/very uncomfortable. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
Listening to the media, to include Fox News, you might think coronavirus is not only the top issue on voters' minds, but dominantly so.

It's not anymore. It slipped to third, but I cannot help but to think their droning on keeps it alive longer than it organically would've.
Average working Americans aren't allowed to gather like the advantaged in the debate crowd tonight without being criticized by the likes of those in the crowd.
In the montage, the first clip Fix News put up was Bill Hemmer talking about coronavirus, the third place issue the media wants in first place until November.
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
THREAD: I'd just note the obvious...

1. The wording of the two questions are different. That's not kosher dill.

2. @realDonaldTrump won voters citing “Supreme Sourt appointments” as “the most important factor” in their vote 56% to 41%.

Continued...
THREAD CONTINUED: So, voters allegedly wanted Obama's nominee to get a hearing, allegedly by a larger margin than they oppose Trump's nominee from getting a hearing, yet they nevertheless rejected that and elected Trump.

Something's a bit off, no?

Perhaps this is the issue...
THREAD CONTINUED: For starters, perhaps the issue is the difference in the way the question was worded.

In 2016, the question merely asked if voters thought the Senate should hold hearings and vote. Now, the question is much more empowering to voters and their own importance. Image
Read 6 tweets
16 Sep
Funny how glorified poll readers attack @Rasmussen_Poll for a 1-point lead for @realDonaldTrump after weeks of tracking.

They have no objection and entertain wholly unrealistic results from "gold standard" pollsters who failed miserably in 2016 and 2018.

It's a total scam.
Any poll showing a competitive race these know-nothings take as evidence of wrongdoing. But unrealistic leads for their preferred candidates cannot possibly be related to known challenges in the industry, even when track-records support them.

Freakin' hucksters. The lot of them.
Reuters, YouGov, Morning Consult, Harvard/Harris and many more, all use online collection.

DIFFERENT GROUPS respond to DIFFERENT MODES at DIFFERENT RATES.

Each collection mode has their own benefits and drawbacks.

The live-caller to cellphone skews badly female and metro.
Read 6 tweets
9 Sep
Very last question you heard from a male reporter shouting at @PressSec @kayleighmcenany as she left the stage, is a Biden Campaign talking point rated as "False" by Snopes.

Q: "Why did the president call it a hoax?"

A straight fake news question.
snopes.com/fact-check/tru…
Point being, we can't entertain the notion we have an objective press when they pepper the White House @PressSec with debunked Biden Campaign talking points.

Snopes rated the claim Trump called COVID a hoax False. The Washington Post gave it 4 Pinocchios.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
Factcheck dot org also rated the claim Trump called the coronavirus a hoax as False.

Again, a reporter in the WH press actually shouted this fake news question at the @PressSec as she was walking off stage.

Current tally: Snopes. WaPo. Factcheck dot org.
factcheck.org/2020/03/trump-…
Read 5 tweets

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