1/ 'You simply want to acquire, at a sensible price, a business with excellent economics..." What Buffett is referring to is unit economics (which are part of microeconomics). berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1996.h…

Munger: "Microeconomics is what we do. Macro is what we put up with."
2/ If an investor can (1) determine the value of the individual customers of a business; and (2) estimate how many customers they will acquire and how long they’re going to stay, the investor can create a sold DCF prediction about the value of that business on a bottoms-up basis.
3/ "An investor’s time is better spent trying to gain a knowledge advantage regarding ‘the knowable’: industries, companies and securities. The more micro your focus, the great the likelihood you can learn things others don’t.” Howard Marks.
As I was saying before being interrupted, 4/ By understanding how to identify a bad business you can quickly put them in the "too hard" or "don’t touch" piles.

"Good businesses throw up one easy decision after another. Bad businesses throw up painful decisions time after time.”
5/ “A bad business gives you a horrible choice where the decision is hard to make. Is this really going to work? Is it worth the money? There are plenty of businesses where decisions that come across your desk are just awful. Those businesses, by and large, don’t work very well.”
6/ “There are two kinds of businesses: The first earns 12% and you can take it out at the end of the year. The second earns 12% but all the excess cash must be reinvested — there’s never any cash. We hate that kind of business."

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More from @trengriffin

5 Oct
Churn is a stone cold killer.

"Netflix, often estimated to be less than 10% annually, the company will face much less fundraising pressure. If it tracks closer to last year’s industry average of 35%, Quibi’s problems would grow significantly."
msn.com/en-us/money/ne…
Churn is a stone cold killer. news.google.com/articles/CAIiE…
The higher the cost of acquiring a customer is, the deadlier customer churn can be. CAC and churn are reflexive. They are interdependent parts of a complex adaptive system. google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct
Once a mobile operator has built out to serve high value mobile customers, there is often unused capacity. Regardless of the "G" it can sell the unused capacity for fixed home use. "All capacity you do not use at this current time is lost forever." fiercewireless.com/operators/veri…
The unit economics of fixed wireless to homes are better if there's: 1) no equipment subsidy; and, 2) no truck roll for an installation.

"Telecom in wireless is a high fixed-cost, low variable-cost business. Once the equipment [built], it’s pretty cheap to offer services.”
The US Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) auction, which may provide up to $16 billion in funding for rural broadband, is scheduled for late October. A FCC ruling may be issued next week clarifying which communications operators can participate in the auction and how.
Read 4 tweets
1 Oct
"Over all, the researchers found, 71 percent of the people in the study did not seem to have transmitted the virus to anyone else; instead, just 5 percent of people accounted for 80 percent of the infections detected by contact tracing." nytimes.com/2020/09/30/hea…
"The most prevalent comorbid conditions were diabetes (45.0%), sustained hypertension (36.2%), coronary artery disease (12.3%), and renal disease (8.2%)." science.sciencemag.org/content/early/…
"R0 breaks down completely in the presence of phenomena not captured in the random graph model, such as the effect of super-spreaders" guava.physics.uiuc.edu/~nigel/courses…
Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
1/ This podcast with Modest Proposal features a useful framework for understanding Charlie Munger style value investing. Old school value investors look quantitatively at the rear view mirror. Munger style investors look qualitatively out the front window. investorfieldguide.com/modest-proposa…
2/ A forward looking qualitative Munger-style investor is looking for a margin of safety based on a competitive analysis of the specific business considering factors like competitive strategy. Circle of competence remains critical since a sound analysis requires that expertise.
3/ The number of times I have considered book value in assessing the value of a business is never. I find my margin of safety by looking for underpriced quality.

"Book value tells you what has been put in; intrinsic business value estimates what can be taken out." Warren Buffett
Read 7 tweets
26 Sep
Twitter is the Quibi of reading --

except that Twitter doesn't pay its writers anything and it actually owns the content -- so Twitter has a workable business model.
One thing Twitter does for its writers, even though it pays them nothing, is give them a chance to be treated like a criminal if they suggest they be assigned a blue check mark. Someone received one without a request this week since they were quoted six times in the press though.
Quibi should fund a comedy about a platform business that pays for content.

High gross margin from free content enables more spending on the platform and opportunity to adopt an advertising based model, which is easier to bootstrap than subscriptions, but a tough revenue model.
Read 4 tweets
26 Sep
Someone I greatly admire sent me the galley proofs of their soon to be published book. I can't decide what is greater: the honor of being asked to read the manuscript or my happiness when I started reading it tonight. No, I can't tell you the topic or author. But it is fabulous.
I read the galleys of this excellent book end-to-end without stopping except for a dinner break. I'm thinking about ideas in the book this morning. More writing should be like this book.

The total number of books sold about investing or business is a small part of nonfiction.
This article title makes an important point about how early success compounds in book publishing and other businesses.

"There are a few winners and there are far, far fewer books around the break-even point, and there are more that lose." nytimes.com/2020/09/19/boo…
Read 4 tweets

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