1/7

Foreign portfolio investors continue to pour money into Chinese stocks and bonds, accumulating around $800 billion to date. Although I have been recommending these markets to my clients for nearly two years, and continue to do so, I think some...

ft.com/content/4b4f1a…
2/7

of the people cited in this article – as they often do with China-related events – may be overhyping the implications.

I think it is a mistake, for example, to see foreign buying of RMB-denominated government bonds as part of the advancing internationalization of the...
3/7

...currency, any more than it would be the case for foreign buying of Brazilian government bonds in reais, Mexican government bonds in pesos or South Korean government bonds in won (and in all three countries, foreign investors play a far greater role than they do in China).
4/7

All it means is that for now these bonds have attractive yields and diversification benefits and limited depreciation risk. But while foreign investors can pour into a developing market when conditions look good, they tend to flee the market when conditions reverse.
5/7

Perhaps this won’t happen in China, but there is as of yet absolutely no reason to make that assumption, nor is there evidence that foreign investors are treating Chinese markets in the same way they treat US, European, Japanese or British financial markets.
6/7

The point is that while local bond markets in China are very attractive – and in my opinion will continue to be for at least another year or two – they are still illiquid and non-transparent, and not only is foreign participation much lower than it is in the major...
7/7

developed markets, it is also much lower than it is in most large developing countries (which, frankly, is part of the reason why I think the Chinese financial markets are still attractive).

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More from @michaelxpettis

8 Oct
1/4

According to this piece by Berkeley's Gabriel Zucman, "If macro growth had been equitably shared from 1980 to 2018, the average pre-tax income of the working-class in the bottom half of the income distribution would have been 57 percent...

law.nyu.edu/sites/default/…
2/4

higher in 2018."

If American workers had received a stable share of what they produced in the past four decades, in other words, they would be much richer than they are now.

Of course if we live in a supply-side world in which investment is constrained by scarce...
3/4

savings, a more equitable distribution in income might have resulted in less growth, in which case this number would be lower. On the other hand if investment were constrained not by scarce savings but by weak demand (which I think is the case), it would have resulted in...
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct
1/7

This article makes an important systemic point about the unsustainable relationship between debt and growth in China: “As China moves to tackle excessive borrowing in the real estate sector, it is walking a tightrope between providing...

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/7

cash-strapped local governments with revenues from land sales and keeping a lid on rising house prices.”

The regulators, as the article points out, are concerned because the real estate sector is over-leveraged and is fueling what everyone knows is a real estate bubble.
3/7

But if they clamp down on further borrowing, this would sharply reduce the revenues of overly-indebted local governments and would force them to borrow even more to keep growth in their jurisdictions from dropping sharply. Because local governments are likely to be...
Read 7 tweets
6 Oct
1/6

According to this very interesting article Chinese entities have sharply increased their buying of JGBs this year in order to get a yield pickup over USTs, which means, I guess, that they have swapped the JGBs into USD. The article adds:

asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-…
2/6

“The yuan's level is guided in reference to a basket of currencies that includes the dollar, euro and yen. China's currency faces upward pressure because the country's economy recovered relatively quickly from the coronavirus downturn. Selling yuan to buy...
3/6

yen-denominated JGBs helps China ease that pressure.”

Actually, selling yuan to buy any foreign currency bonds helps China ease appreciation pressure, but for me the important question is whose currency is taking the brunt of yuan selling. If Chinese entities bought...
Read 6 tweets
5 Oct
1/4

Beijing is so packed with Chinese tourists right now that several times I have had trouble getting my phone connected, but despite the promise of substantial "revenge spending" during this year's one-week national holiday, consumer spending in...

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/4

the first four days was still down a whopping 31% from the same period last year.

Even though Chinese tourists cannot go abroad this year, there are still 20% fewer tourists traveling in China than there were last year, and they spent on average 12% less per person.
3/4

That isn't good. I have been relatively bearish about the revival of consumption, but I still expected the national holiday to be better than this. If Chinese tourists remain so cautious about spending, even with the sense that Covid-19 is truly behind us, it is hard...
Read 4 tweets
5 Oct
1/6

Good article, but worrying. Albert Hirschman argued that once a developing country reaches the maximum level of investment it can absorb productively, which I'd argue China did in the past two decades, it must implement the financial, legal, and...
ft.com/content/582411…
2/6

political reforms that allow its workers and businesses to operate productively at higher investment levels. This, he always said, was the hard part, as it always involved changes in the distribution of wealth and political power away from the incumbents.
3/6

I think Hirschman is right. The main difference between advanced economies and developing economies is the nature of their institutions, not the amount of capital invested (it is the former that should determine the latter).
Read 6 tweets
4 Oct
1/4
The author says that "since 2015, the central bank has allowed the currency to trade more freely. The PBoC’s shift has enabled the renminbi to undertake the same signalling role that the yen historically played regarding the dollars prospects."

ft.com/content/0534f1…
2/4
I disagree with much of this article, but especially the claim that the RMB began trading freely in 2015. In fact what happened is that the PBoC shifted from targeting USD to targeting a basket of currencies (the CFETS RMB Index). If you continue tracking the RMB against...
3/4
the dollar, it might seem that the RMB has become much more volatile, but most of that is simply USD volatility.

Against the basket, on the other hand, the RMB has been very stable: it is less than 1% higher today, for example, than it was four years ago. What is...
Read 4 tweets

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