This week's Test & Trace report is out, showing the impact of the 16,000 test results that were mislaid in the last week of September.
As if that wasn't bad enough, a HUGE number of tests hadn't given a result by the end of the week, and last week's backlog has been abandoned.
As if that wasn't bad enough, a HUGE number of tests hadn't given a result by the end of the week, and last week's backlog has been abandoned.
The number of people testing positive continues to rise sharply, but the number of cases referred to Test & Trace didn't.
There's a shortfall of 16,981 cases - far more than usual.
Only two thirds of people who tested positive that week were referred to Test & Trace!
There's a shortfall of 16,981 cases - far more than usual.
Only two thirds of people who tested positive that week were referred to Test & Trace!
This seems to be largely due to 16,000 cases that were missed because the old version of Excel that PHE use to import data from Pillar 2 labs ran out of rows!
The extra cases were finally referred to T&T last weekend and should be in next week's report.
The extra cases were finally referred to T&T last weekend and should be in next week's report.
https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1313120119678263298?s=20
But wait, it gets worse.
A record breaking 95,700 tests hadn't delivered a result when the report was compiled.
10% of all tests done in England that week!
Including 59,000 "Satellite" tests, mostly from care home staff and vulnerable residents now left waiting for results!
A record breaking 95,700 tests hadn't delivered a result when the report was compiled.
10% of all tests done in England that week!
Including 59,000 "Satellite" tests, mostly from care home staff and vulnerable residents now left waiting for results!
I don't think that includes the 16,000 tests that fell off the spreadsheet, as those DID deliver results, they just weren't counted on the PHE dashboard or referred to contact tracers.
But even if it does, this would still be by far the worst week to date.
That's how bad it is.
But even if it does, this would still be by far the worst week to date.
That's how bad it is.
And this is despite labs seeming to have given up on the (relatively small) backlog of tests from the previous week.
Only 1,895 of 18,855 tests listed as not completed in last week's report have now given a result.
Again most of the abandoned (void?) tests came from care homes.
Only 1,895 of 18,855 tests listed as not completed in last week's report have now given a result.
Again most of the abandoned (void?) tests came from care homes.
The average time taken to deliver Home and Satellite tests seems to be improving since peaking a month ago.
But that doesn't include tens of thousands of people who got no result at all yet.
And in person tests (at drive in, walk up and mobile test sites) are getting slower.
But that doesn't include tens of thousands of people who got no result at all yet.
And in person tests (at drive in, walk up and mobile test sites) are getting slower.
We also now have data on how far people travelled to take their test.
This shows average distances falling since the crisis in early September, when testing was rationed as labs ran out of capacity.
But it ignores people who couldn't book a test within a reasonable distance.
This shows average distances falling since the crisis in early September, when testing was rationed as labs ran out of capacity.
But it ignores people who couldn't book a test within a reasonable distance.
Meanwhile as lab capacity finally rises, the number of tests being made available at Regional (drive in) sites is starting to recover as rationing is eased.
But it's still far below the level we saw throughout August.
If you're still having trouble booking a test, this is why.
But it's still far below the level we saw throughout August.
If you're still having trouble booking a test, this is why.
For the 34,494 people who DID manage to book a test, got a result back from it, and were actually referred to contact tracers without dropping off the bottom of a spreadsheet, the news doesn't get much better.
Only 74% of them were reached, below the 80% target.
Only 74% of them were reached, below the 80% target.
The biggest failing though is still in reaching contacts.
The outsourced call centre service handling "non-complex" cases only reached 62% of contacts they identified.
Even including "complex" cases handled by local health officials it's only 69%.
Again, the target is 80%.
The outsourced call centre service handling "non-complex" cases only reached 62% of contacts they identified.
Even including "complex" cases handled by local health officials it's only 69%.
Again, the target is 80%.
All these failures add up.
90% of people tested got a result
67% of cases were referred to contact tracers
74% of those cases were reached
69% of their contacts were reached
So as a ball park figure, about 90% * 67% * 74% * 69% = only 31% of possible contacts reached in time!
90% of people tested got a result
67% of cases were referred to contact tracers
74% of those cases were reached
69% of their contacts were reached
So as a ball park figure, about 90% * 67% * 74% * 69% = only 31% of possible contacts reached in time!
And here's my explanation of why I no longer divide people testing positive by people tested to determine positivity rates for Pillar 2 testing.
PHE have now changed the way they calculate this. So hopefully better data will appear in future T&T reports.
PHE have now changed the way they calculate this. So hopefully better data will appear in future T&T reports.
https://twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1304320944983465984?s=20
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