As I pointed out last month, the government utterly failed to increase lab capacity over the summer, despite rising demand (much of it driven by their own policies).
Pillar 1 capacity has barely changed since July 7.
Pillar 2 capacity stalled on June 14!
As Lighthouse Labs handling Pillar 2 (community) testing hit capacity in late August, the government started paying private labs (most in the EU) to handle excess tests.
This accounted for ALL of the increase in Pillar 2 capacity over the next two weeks.
It's not clear how much (if any) of the additional 40,000 tests a day capacity added in the month since then has come from upgrading equipment at existing Lighthouse Labs.
Or if we just paid more private labs to make up for our own lack of forward planning.
Meanwhile the new labs the government promised over the summer have all failed to arrive.
Newport was supposed to open at the end of August. But they were still recruiting staff then!
Supposedly equipment was in place in September, but nobody to use it.
And a reminder that a few weeks ago an industry body was warning that "supply chain lag" could derail the government's efforts to hit 500,000 tests a day.
Despite that pledge being made 2 months earlier, more than enough time to scale up production. 🤔
Some people still seem convinced the recent surge in covid-19 cases is caused by "false positives" (people who don't have the virus but still test positive due to various issues), often claiming 90% of reported cases aren't real.
This argument doesn't hold water.
Here's why...
A lot of this goes back to a quote from Matt Hancock that the false positive rate was "under 1%".
Some assumed the rate was close to 1%, which would mean if you test 200,000 people a day who (mostly) don't have the virus, you'd get 2,000 false positives.
This week's Test & Trace report is out, showing the impact of the 16,000 test results that were mislaid in the last week of September.
As if that wasn't bad enough, a HUGE number of tests hadn't given a result by the end of the week, and last week's backlog has been abandoned.
The number of people testing positive continues to rise sharply, but the number of cases referred to Test & Trace didn't.
There's a shortfall of 16,981 cases - far more than usual.
Only two thirds of people who tested positive that week were referred to Test & Trace!
This seems to be largely due to 16,000 cases that were missed because the old version of Excel that PHE use to import data from Pillar 2 labs ran out of rows!
The extra cases were finally referred to T&T last weekend and should be in next week's report.
PHE seems to have changed the way it calculates positivity rates, 4 weeks after I pointed out they appeared to be using the same incomplete count of the number of people tested that's given in the Test & Trace report.
This massively and increasingly overstated positivity rates.
Satellite centre tests (mostly repeat testing of care home staff and residents who have been tested before, and therefore don't count as new people tested) now make up almost half of all Pillar 2 tests.
You can see the impact this has by comparing tests done to "people tested" -
Another interesting story from inside the testing system in @thesundaytimes today, this time reporting on issues at Randox, who seem to provide a quarter of current Pillar 2 capacity.
Tests are often delayed or voided, with other contracts taking priority over national testing!
The government failed to increase lab capacity AT ALL over the summer, despite their own policies leading to increased demand for tests that reduced the headroom available to deal with any second wave.
Now that cases are surging the system is collapsing.
This was all avoidable.
So what went wrong?
Pillar 2 capacity hit 135,000 tests a day on June 14.
But demand started rising from the start of July.
And capacity didn't go up again until August 27.
By then labs had been running near 100% capacity for a week, leading to widespread delays and backlogs.
This first became apparent in the Test & Trace reports, which showed longer and longer delays in delivering results for home and satellite site (mostly care home) tests, and over 10,000 tests a week never delivering a result at all!