Economy grew by 2.1% in August, the beginning of Eat Out to Help Out, slowest month of positive growth since the sharp shutdown falls, and about half expectations, 9.2% smaller than size of economy pre pandemic. Services & restaurants up. Three month growth rate now positive - 8%
“The chancellor will be setting out the next stage of the Job Support scheme later today that will protect jobs and provide a safety net for those businesses that may have to close in the coming weeks and months.” Says Treasury...
This was the GM Mayor yesterday on BBCQT demanding a “full local furlough scheme”
Hospitality industry welcomes movement....
understand that the new tiered restriction plans were presented to local leaders earlier this week, who immediately asked why there was not a support package attached.
PM & Chancellor met last night to agree an extension to the Jobs Support Scheme (the furlough successor)
detail here really matters - will it be geographically based by postcode in “red” zones and/or sector based - resisted by HMT in the past? Mayors such as Burnham and Rotherham demanding that it needs to be as generous as original furlough scheme for businesses obliged to close
And this “boundary issue” is one of the reasons HMT had been sceptical about sector specific jobs subsidies in the past ... what about accountants in hospitality industry etc...
A critique from someone listened to in Government policy circles:

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More from @faisalislam

9 Oct
Speaker of the House Pelosi, basically unprompted on that issue, says she has concerns that UK medicines regulatory standards will fall below US FDA standards, and that PM Johnson will approve a Covid vaccine/treatment, which will then be embraced by President Trump...

Blimey.
V specific thing to choose to bring up.... at v least the PM has a serious diplomatic issue with Dem establishment in DC (beyond Irish border/ Brexit) if they are willing to volunteer view that UK has low medicines standards, & willing to help Trump get round US approvals...
This FT story fills in some backstory about a meeting between Pelosi and the WH chief of staff about fast tracking a vaccine...

Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
NEW - government announces Treasury will cover 2/3 of pay for workers in companies obliged to shut down because of Covid restrictions from next month
Understand this is thought to cost 100s millions (per month) - which suggests at moment it will impact in hundreds of thousands. Obviously depends on what exactly is restricted - some aspects of the hospitality industry.

Govt desperate to avoid wholesale lockdown, eg not retail
Govt says not a local or sectoral furlough scheme, but it will pay majority of wages of workers who don’t work in those sectors in regions which are obliged to shut....so quite different from aim and strategy of Jobs support scheme, introduced just days ago. Ie no viability test.
Read 5 tweets
9 Oct
Big intervention from top Sage scientist - likening current situation to the delayed action in early March - shows the conflicting pressures the Govt under to act very quickly:
A very interesting World Bank study of economy/ health trade-offs across 49 countries in first half of 2020...

Total cases had biggest negative impact, more than “lockdown stringency”, then exposure to tourism.

Total tests (per million) correlated positively.

HT @birdyword
Obv correlation not causality, but clearly effective testing regimes improves the trade off between health and economy by allowing more targeted restrictions - which should be where UK is around now
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
Well - that’ll be Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross MP linesman at Wembley Image
He was indeed put on the FIFA assistant referees list by the SFA in December - scottishfa.co.uk/news/fifa-nomi…
Ross down on uefa website as linesman for Luxembourg-cyprus nations league on Saturday too - which is interesting as Lux not on exempt list, & Govt advises against all but essential travel because of Covid, so ordinarily would require isolation on return uefa.com/uefanationslea…
Read 5 tweets
8 Oct
Government about to announce new facilities for inland customs, regulatory veterinary checks in Kent at Ebbsfleet, at Holyhead and north Weald. A transit facility in Warrington, and further sites sought too.
New 138 pg “Border Operating Model” detailing post single market & customs unions checks/ paperwork/ formalities and how are to be carried out on previously seamless GB-EU border, now published. Govt still concerned about trader preparedness for Jan 1: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Detail new “inland clearance sites” for Jan where EU imports that need wet stamp on carnet, or under transit, or under traffic management will occur, “where ports do not have the space”
Ebbsfleet International
North Weald Airfield
Sevington
Warrington

Dover, Holyhead by July
Read 10 tweets
8 Oct
The pandemic contours of this critical election are now:

Biden - masks matter, its a patriotic duty to help stop the spread, federal mandate to stop spread.

Trump - Going to distribute the experimental “cure” that I took for free for everyone, once we fast-track authorisation.
Regeneron has only had early trials in 275 humans (+ POTUS)...
Hopefully there are sufficient Chinese hamsters, or equivalent:

“The companies then put the genes in Chinese hamster ovary cells to bulk manufacture the antibodies, which were given to the COVID-19 patients as infusions”. sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/p…
Read 4 tweets

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