1/n] I think it's a very good decision to give this year's Peace Nobel to the World Food Programme.

Hunger is one of the world's biggest problems and the WFP – one of the UN insitutions that works outstandingly well – is making the world a better place.

nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2…
2] The world has made a lot of progress against hunger. This is the decline of famine deaths over time.

The WFP helped to avert possible famines in southern Africa (1991–92 & 2000–01), Afghanistan (2001), and western Africa (2012).

[Our work on famines: ourworldindata.org/famines]
3] But hunger remains a massive problem – 11% of the world population are undernourished.

And after decades of progress the share of people that are undernourished has not fallen in recent years.

[@_HannahRitchie's work on hunger on @OurWorldInData: ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-und…]
4] The WFP was long praised as an international organizations that achieves its objectives and does so cost-effectively.

At the top of the chart – from this paper by Ranjit Lall:
scholar.harvard.edu/ranjitlall/res…

His paper includes a very good discussion of why the WFP works so well.
5] Really lucky for the world to have such capable and dedicated people work in the UN's World Food Programme.

Great decision today! And huge congratulations to the team at the WFP!

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More from @MaxCRoser

9 Oct
What will the global decline of economic growth mean for extreme poverty?

• Orange is the pre-COVID scenario.
• The rise of poverty shows us what to expect under a contraction in global growth this year of 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

This is very, very bad. Image
The global goal of ending extreme poverty globally was out of reach before the pandemic as I and many others have written last year.

It would have required all countries to grow at 7 percent annually.
ourworldindata.org/extreme-povert…
Now with the global pandemic it is not realistic at all sadly.

(Reaching the 2030 would now require all countries to grow at rates of 8 percent per year between 2021 and 2030 and this we cannot realistically expect.) Image
Read 5 tweets
7 Oct
Almost unbelievably fast progress here in Britain. Coal is disappearing rapidly.

This visualization shows the daily share of Britain's electricity that is generated by coal.

In 2012 still 40% was generated by burning coal. Now we go months without any.

theguardian.com/environment/ng…
Here is the recent change in the context of the last century.

Smil and others say that energy transitions are slow, but this doesn’t look slow to me.

Britain was absolutely dominated by coal for generations. And now Britain got almost rid of it.

electricinsights.co.uk/#/reports/repo…
40% of electricity was generated by coal back in 2012.

In 2013 the country implemented the ‘carbon price floor’ (a top up carbon tax to the ETS).

According to this study (chapter 4) this is what led to the unprecedented reduction in coal generation.
ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/susta…
Read 4 tweets
5 Oct
In the UK the number of cases rose rapidly.
But the public – and authorities – are only learning this now because these cases were only published now as a backlog.

The reason was apparently that the database is managed in Excel and the number of columns had reached the maximum.
Here is the article dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8…

Glad that they are apparently now working on a solution. Not one, but several Excel spreadsheets…
It is now also the main headline at the BBC: bbc.co.uk/news/uk-544125…
At the end of last week confirmed cases were "actually nearer 11,000" – about 4,000 more than reported.

This is very, very bad and also means that the outbreak is much more rapid than thought.
Read 5 tweets
22 Sep
Economists are not known for agreeing much with one another.

Regarding the challenge of how to achieve the required reduction of greenhouse gas emissions a majority of the most widely respected economists agrees however: carbon taxes.

igmchicago.org/?s=carbon+tax ImageImage
This here is a survey of 365 economists who have published papers related to climate change “in a highly ranked, peer-reviewed economics or environmental economics journal” and the result is the same.

[link policyintegrity.org/files/publicat…] Image
This survey also finds that compared with the general public (pie chart at the bottom) a much larger share of economists believes that climate change is a serious problem and that it is time to act now.

(Very much contrary to the caricature of economists in some media outlets.) Image
Read 5 tweets
16 Sep
One of the weirdest things about this pandemic are the crazy claims that some people make about Sweden.

This guy is getting back to me with a claim that very obviously contradicts the very tweet that he is replying to.🤦‍♂️ Image
I expect that Sweden will do well in the longer run –– it is one of the richest countries with one of the best health systems on the planet.

But to say that Sweden has done well in the first months of this pandemic is absurd (8.3% econ decline and one of the worst death rates). Image
If you are looking for a country to praise (and learn from) my suggestions are Korea, Germany, or Vietnam.

[Here is the research on they managed to do so well:
]
Read 4 tweets
11 Aug
Years ago Lant Pritchett suggested an additional higher poverty line:
Back then the extreme poverty line was $1.25, he suggested to add $12.50 per day.

Now I want to update it:
I’m suggesting int.-$30 per day.
(arguments in the next tweet.)

What do you think about $30 per day?
This was how Pritchett arrived at his additional poverty line.

He followed the same logic that the UN/World Bank applies to arrive at the International Poverty Line (for extreme poverty) Image
I’ll share the calculations in the next tweet, but this is my overall thinking to get to $30 per day.

$30 per day is a very low poverty for one of the richer countries in the EU (Germany) and in line with the poverty line in a country a bit below the EU average (Spain). Image
Read 6 tweets

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