Thread by @JakeSherman

Playbook this AM — ON COVID RELIEF

TRUMP ADMIN HAS PROVEN the 18 acres on which the WH sits are a logic-free zone. Don’t waste your time trying to make sense of anything that comes out of or goes on there, bc it’s a fool’s errand&you’ll just end up with a headache &clenched jaw

TRUMP has spent the last few days vacillating between 2 different, irreconcilable poles: not wanting a Covid relief bill, because it includes a “bailout” of blue states, and wanting a “big deal,” which will definitely include a bailout of blue states. Square that circle. Or dont.

SO, LET’S NOT FOCUS ON WHETHER @stevenmnuchin1 and @SpeakerPelosi will strike some sort of compromise, because it’s ultimately unknowable. We’ve described the hurdles -- a huge money difference, policy differences, etc. -- between the two parties at the moment.

It’s damn hard and seemingly unlikely. Will MNUCHIN get his way and try to roll Republicans? Maybe, depending on the president’s mood and who has talked to him last.

LET’S FOCUS ON TWO DIFFERENT DYNAMICS: what needs to happen between now and passage, and why PELOSI, MNUCHIN and TRUMP might be fooling us.

LET’S START WITH THIS: THERE ARE 25 DAYS between now and Election Day, and Washington is at least pretending it is going to do something historic: pass a $1 trillion-plus package and confirm a Supreme Court justice in the lead-up to the election

SO … HERE’S WHAT HAS TO HAPPEN: THEY NEED A DEAL: The two sides have to come together on the top-line number, and the policies within the bill. … ONCE THAT HAPPENS, they need to draft the bill. This takes three or so days at absolute best.

There are some major policy differences, and drafting is always a hassle. … THEN THEY MUST RELEASE THE BILL. The bill is going to have to sit out for a day or so. PELOSI has to take it to House Democrats, and Senate Majority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL has to take it to Senate Rs

SO, WE’RE TALKING ABOUT A TWO-WEEK PROCESS at a minimum to pass a deal that’s not yet wrapped up. Layer on a Supreme Court confirmation hearing and floor vote.

WAKE UP WHITE HOUSE! IT’S GO TIME!: To get a deal, the White House needs to empower MNUCHIN to get something done -- something they haven’t done yet; TRUMP needs to expend serious political capital to get a big vote in House as a signal to the Senate that it has cover voting yes.

AND THEN TRUMP needs to work the Senate to get a BIG GOP vote and a quick process, which will take political muscles he’s never used before

IN SHORT, the time has come for the White House to act seriously about this effort -- if they want to get it done.
SENATE MINORITY LEADER CHUCK SCHUMER, of course, is going to need many Democratic votes -- 30? 40?

Senate Rs are going to need like 30 of their members voting yes.

OK, HERE’S WHY THEY MAY BE YANKING OUR LEGS: There’s a theory that’s rattling around the Capitol that all of the principals are engaged in an intricate game of smoke and mirrors right now. IS MNUCHIN DRAGGING OUT THESE negotiations to juice markets? …

IS TRUMP trying to push a negotiation to set PELOSI up to blame? IS PELOSI simply going with the flow?