Aug 14: The UK had a low rate of Covid cases, ministers warned people about foreign travel and the PM instigated his "whack a mole" strategy...

... well, the moles are winning

How we got to where we are with @GeorgeWParker and @AndyBounds

ft.com/content/5276b0…
@GeorgeWParker @AndyBounds Excellent charts from @jburnmurdoch showing how the UK's positive test rate has jumped ahead of the US and is now close to Spain and France's levels
@GeorgeWParker @AndyBounds @jburnmurdoch Infections are now back to the level of April
@GeorgeWParker @AndyBounds @jburnmurdoch In the North of England, Covid is not just prevelent in student areas or those with high levels of ethnic minorities.

Deprivation is important, but it's also now in 77% of all local areas across England
@GeorgeWParker @AndyBounds @jburnmurdoch And hospital occupancy is on course in the North West to reach the levels of the spring peak within a couple of weeks

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More from @ChrisGiles_

15 Sep
A continued cloudy picture over jobs ft.com/content/85b4d2… via @financialtimes

1/
Yes - payroll numbers suggest we've lost 695,000 since March.

But that figure was 730,000 last month - following some revisions

2/
There's the first sign in monthly data (always can be a blip) of the official unemployment rate rising

Even more so in weekly data (up to almost 5%)

3/
Read 5 tweets
14 Sep
NEWS YOU CAN USE
These are the new limits of sin goods you'll be able to bring in from Calais after Jan...
(ensuring cars carry more passengers than before)

Don't exceed the limits or you'll pay excise and VAT on everything

1/ Image
Unless - of course you go via the Republic of Ireland.

Then you can do what you like.

I am not sure whether this would be breaking the law in a limited and specific way...

ENDS

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Addendum:

You will be able I think to reclaim French VAT (20%) on wine at Calais before getting on the boat
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
UK government reimposes new national laws on social gatherings as case number rise.

The rise came earlier (when measured by the day of test) than the latest spike in reported cases...
....around the bank holiday

ft.com/content/e26349…

1/
Worse. The rate of positive tests is also rising, so higher numbers of confirmed cases are not due to more testing

2/
Case rates vary across the UK, but are have risen everywhere...

... in five regions/nations, they higher than the level that triggers quarantine for returning travellers

3/
Read 5 tweets
3 Sep
There is a big question for any autumn Budget - should @RishiSunak raise taxes (either immediately or deferred a few years)

My bit on that gives a resounding "no" as an answer

ft.com/content/8260fe…
@RishiSunak The immediate priority for economic policy is health.

We don't know the scale of persistent coronavirus economic damage
We don't have sensible medium term forecasts
So we can't know the scale of necessary tax rises
It is honestly fine to have a Budget with palpably unsustainable public finance forecasts in these circumstances

The fiscal rules have a "comply or explain" element - now is the time to explain

And build the case for necessary tax rises which have the least economic costs
Read 5 tweets
24 Aug
It looks like the UK economy has enjoyed a remarkable bounce in the third quarter so far....

1/

ft.com/content/35e187…
Consumers have put caution aside at least for now

2/
- Eat out ot help out is quite a success
- lower VAT on hospitality
- staycations

means pubs, restaurants have been full especially on Mondays to Wednesdays

Data from @OpenTableUK

3/
Read 5 tweets
19 Aug
A thread on:

Why we need an algorithm to help set A Level grades in 2021

(After the past week, I'm honestly not being obtuse)

1/
Yes, I understand that the choices made in this year's A level standardisation algorithm were disastrous....

2/

But as the FT editorial board and others have explained, this was much more a human rathen than an algorithmic failing

3/

ft.com/content/58dcbf…
Read 11 tweets

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