Thread by @BetfairExchange

⬇️🇱🇷 Saturday's #Election2020 thread 🗳️⬇️

1⃣ Check back throughout the day for breaking news, market updates and latest analysis from @paulmotty

2⃣ This graph shows how the odds for both Trump and Biden have fluctuated throughout 2020.

3⃣ US Elections are always determined by what happens in the swing states. (Most don't fit that description!)

I've previewed the most 19 competitive states here. Click through for latest analysis and odds.

betting.betfair.com/politics/us-po…

4⃣ If you're looking for a bet around even money on #Election2020, this Biden -100.5 Handicap market meets the criteria.

This equates to a winning margin line. To pass it, Biden needs 320 electoral college votes.

5⃣ BREAKING: Live on @CNN - Donald Trump now addressing his supporters from the White House balcony.

6⃣ Trump still stating coronavirus will just 'go away' and mentions lots of 'flare-ups' elsewhere. Europe, Canada.

This, just as it starts spiking again across USA.

Its a campaign rally. He tells audience to 'vote Democrats into oblivion.

7️⃣ There's been talk of 'Mayor Pete' Buttigieg being a great 'surrogate' for Biden. What does that mean?

8⃣ One of the more popular markets in recent days has been Trump Vote Percentage, where the odds about the lowest possible band has tumbled from 38 to 10.

Trump scored 46.1% in 2016 but is odds-on to fall short of that target this time.

Market here: btfr.co/170917884

9⃣ The current @FiveThirtyEight poll average has Trump on 42% - trailing by 10%.

Given that he urgently needs a gamechanger, refusing to participate in a virtual debate with Biden makes no strategic sense.

betting.betfair.com/politics/us-po…

🔟Our Next President odds have edged further in Joe Biden's favour today.

Trump's odds are now above 3.0 and his implied chance down to 33%.

That is still, however, much higher than poll estimates. @FiveThirtyEight for example rate it just 15% likely.