⬇️🇺🇸 Monday's #Election2020 Thread 🗳️⬇️
1⃣ After an extraordinary day's trading, our Swing-O-Meter is now pointing firmly towards Joe Biden. The swing is 2% for the last 24 hours and was 3% at one point yesterday.
Check back for latest polls, breaking news and analysis.
1⃣ After an extraordinary day's trading, our Swing-O-Meter is now pointing firmly towards Joe Biden. The swing is 2% for the last 24 hours and was 3% at one point yesterday.
Check back for latest polls, breaking news and analysis.
2⃣ We *should* have been gearing up for the second #PresidentialDebate this week but it has been cancelled.
Which of the candidates does that favour?
betting.betfair.com/politics/us-po…
Which of the candidates does that favour?
betting.betfair.com/politics/us-po…
3⃣ Not many positive signals around for Trump supporters but here's one.
On this day in 2016, Hillary Clinton's average odds were 1.19 compared to 6.2 about Trump.
On this day in 2016, Hillary Clinton's average odds were 1.19 compared to 6.2 about Trump.
4⃣ Money has poured in for Biden in recent days, propelling his odds to their shortest yet. #
He's now passed through the £50M barrier.
He's now passed through the £50M barrier.
5⃣ The Biden gamble begun in earnest on the night of the first #PresidentialDebate.
That is in keeping with trends in the four US elections since Betfair's inception. However as explained here, not necessarily a good indicator.
betting.betfair.com/politics/us-po…
That is in keeping with trends in the four US elections since Betfair's inception. However as explained here, not necessarily a good indicator.
betting.betfair.com/politics/us-po…
6⃣ Having analysed the betting trends from those four previous campaigns, my conclusion is that #Election2020 is most similar to the 2008 election, which resulted in a landslide victory for Barack Obama.
cityam.com/betfair-why-th…
cityam.com/betfair-why-th…
7⃣ How the odds have moved since August 1st.
Biden started well ahead but a Trump bounce, coinciding with the Republican Convention, led to tightening.
Since the first debate, its been one-way traffic for Biden.
Biden started well ahead but a Trump bounce, coinciding with the Republican Convention, led to tightening.
Since the first debate, its been one-way traffic for Biden.
8⃣ High-grade polls to report.
A+ rated NYT/Siena have Biden +8 and +10 in Michigan and Wisconsin respectively.
Nationwide, A/B rated IBD/TIPP have started a daily tracker. They have it Biden +10
A+ rated NYT/Siena have Biden +8 and +10 in Michigan and Wisconsin respectively.
Nationwide, A/B rated IBD/TIPP have started a daily tracker. They have it Biden +10
9⃣ A big move for Trump is underway!
He's shortened from 3.35 to 3.0 today.
Its a surprise given recent trends and today's predictable polls but this is a substantial shift in the odds. He's reversed Biden's market gain from yesterday.
He's shortened from 3.35 to 3.0 today.
Its a surprise given recent trends and today's predictable polls but this is a substantial shift in the odds. He's reversed Biden's market gain from yesterday.
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