⬇️🇺🇸 Sunday's #Election2020 Thread🗳️⬇️
1⃣ Our swingometer is showing a bigger advantage for Joe Biden than on any morning since it was launched.
Check back throughout the day for latest analysis, breaking news and polls from @paulmotty
1⃣ Our swingometer is showing a bigger advantage for Joe Biden than on any morning since it was launched.
Check back throughout the day for latest analysis, breaking news and polls from @paulmotty
2⃣ Yesterday was very quiet in terms of polls but that is quite normal for Saturday. Sundays are better as they're timed for the political news shows. Buckle up!
First an A+ rated national poll from ABC/WAPO.
They have Biden +12. This fits with recent trends.
First an A+ rated national poll from ABC/WAPO.
They have Biden +12. This fits with recent trends.
3️⃣ What do we mean by the term 'Bellwether State' and to which US states does it apply?
4⃣ A key feature of this cycle and others since 2016 has been scepticism regarding the polls, due to three massive upsets in the space of 12 months.
As I explain here, election results since 2017 have in fact been very predictable.
betting.betfair.com/politics/us-po…
As I explain here, election results since 2017 have in fact been very predictable.
betting.betfair.com/politics/us-po…
5⃣ The gamble on Joe Biden is really gathering steam today. He's been matched at his lowest odds yet, at 1.41.
This market has been one-way traffic ever since the start of the first #PresidentialDebate
This market has been one-way traffic ever since the start of the first #PresidentialDebate
6⃣ There's been some banter between forecasters @NateSilver of @FivethirtyEight and @gelliottmorris of @TheEconomist re the predictions of their respective models. The trend is moving towards the latter's higher estimate.
Economist: Biden 92%
538: Biden 86%
Betfair: Biden 70%
Economist: Biden 92%
538: Biden 86%
Betfair: Biden 70%
7️⃣ A much better third party performance than usual was critical to the 2016 election result.
What, or whom, do we mean by 'third party'?
What, or whom, do we mean by 'third party'?
8⃣ Biden is now odds-on to beat the highest of our four handicap targets on the winning margin.
To beat the -100.5 line requires winning 320 electoral college votes.
Market here: btfr.co/173744877
To beat the -100.5 line requires winning 320 electoral college votes.
Market here: btfr.co/173744877
9⃣ Biden's likeliest path to that 320 target
Hold all Clinton states = 232 ECVs
Then gain
Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Arizona (11), Nebraska CD2 (1), Florida (29), Maine CD2 (1) = 320.
Hold all Clinton states = 232 ECVs
Then gain
Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Pennsylvania (20), Arizona (11), Nebraska CD2 (1), Florida (29), Maine CD2 (1) = 320.
🔟 The betting has been moving steadily towards Joe Biden since the start of the first #PresidentialDebate but today is arguably the most significant to date.
He started at 1.5, shortened to a new low of 1.41 before stabilising at 1.44.
He started at 1.5, shortened to a new low of 1.41 before stabilising at 1.44.
1⃣1⃣ An indication of the scale of the weight of money driving Biden's odds down.
Over £10M has been matched in four days.
That amounts to more than 8% of the total in a market that has been live for nearly four years.
Over £10M has been matched in four days.
That amounts to more than 8% of the total in a market that has been live for nearly four years.
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