I started using twitter in earnest this year, and today I reached 10K followers. I do not know all of you personally, but I do know many of you professionally, and I really respect your views/input/content etc. Some observations on twitter in general (=THREAD)
I used to be skeptical of twitter. In part because I wanted to keep research content for my clients only, and because some of the stuff I look at is very niche. But then came the COVID shock, and suddenly everybody was interested & there was a lot of new/important data to crunch
The COVID shock showed the power of data, to a huge audience. I had to express my views in public, especially back in Q1, when there were so many basic misunderstandings.
I do not have a goal of having a ton of followers in itself. You could just advertise and get a lot if you wanted. That would serve little purpose. The goal is to have a large, high-quality following...
...why is it good to have a large (quality) following?
- you can get more feedback
- you can do better surveys
- you gain credibility (probably up for debate, but there is some truth to it, if someone has a few followers, you get taken less seriously)
I used to be banned from twitter. Not by twitter, but by my (financial sector) employers. Hence, it was liberating to start my own business @ExanteData, and make the rules. Be free...
It used to be hard to have a public audience for your views (beyond a narrow professional niche, often clients). You had to get your op-ed accepted to a paper. It is hard. very hard. On twitter is is very easy. Perhaps too easy. But the option is at least there. It is liberating.
There are a lot of very smart people on twitter, and the format really allows you to absorb a lot of information very quickly, as opposed to reading academic papers (if you avoid getting jus stuck on the site). And if you follow the right people, they can be the 'quality filter'.
It is hard to get started. How do you move from 0 followers to a critical mass, from where you can grow organically. I got a lot of help from some folks with a lot of followers. 4 people come to mind: @AlbertoBagnai @tomkeene @TheStalwart and @Brad_Setser . Thanks for the help
It has also been a great help to use the 'robotic feeds' we now have on @exantedata. I use them to absorb more information myself, and I push them to @jnordvig when i think there is something especially interesting. It is a way to come up with fresh perspectives, from raw data.
There are bad things too, and things not to do. Engage in twitter discussions with those who do not want to learn, or have anger management issues. Only way to handle is not to engage. And avoiding the Sweden COVID debate is also helpful in that regard :-)
In any case, thanks for following, and for the feedback. I have learnt a lot from it all. And I will try to do new stuff in coming months. If you have suggestions, do let me know.

Thanks again... END

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More from @jnordvig

5 Oct
Lots of focus on Nov 3, and how the world may change after that day. But what we do know is that WFH, or at least a hybrid model, will be with us well beyond the election day. So we do need to plan… (= THREAD)
As I mentioned in previous thread, the initial excitement about wfh being possible, and in some narrow areas even an advantage, is giving way to a form of fatigue, reduced motivation, and a test to social networking / teamwork structures, over time.

Hence, we have been thinking hard about what can be done (in the context of managing @ExanteData) to ‘stay sane’ and avoid the most obvious pitfalls of working from home in the longer-run. Three main points on this....
Read 16 tweets
1 Oct
The most important chart of 2020 continues to evolve. We had the incredible situation that incomes spiked in a depression, because government transfers were so big. Now that transfers are declining, incomes are coming down, but spending is still on an uptrend via past savings. Image
This is why the fiscal stimulus debate remains the hottest issue of the day, as well as more strategically. The cut in Federal unemployment subsidies are feeding directly into this. So that piece is key, although maybe the aid for states is what the negotiation is more focused on
2020 is not like any other year. The aggressiveness of fiscal policy, in the US and globally, is different. And the interplay between fiscal policy & QE is also different. "FisQEl Policy", if you will... (as opposed to the pure asset swap QE of the 2008-2014 period).@TheStalwart
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
Just did @BloombergTV with @CarolineHydeTV, @romainebostick and @TheStalwart. Main discussion was about the recovery, and whether it is in question

My main point...watch two engines of recovery...
The recovery, since April-May, has had two engines:
First, the gradual reopening, in the US (with some setbacks along the way) and globally.
Second, the roll-out of big fiscal stimulus (in the US, and more broadly)
We have to watch these two engines. The low fatality rates and the greater appreciation for the importance of superspreading events and mask use (and aversion to big 2nd round lockdowns), means that big 2nd round lockdowns are unlikely, unless hospitalizations/death really move.
Read 6 tweets
6 Sep
It used to be 'I am not an epidemiologist'; and now we can flip to 'I am not a criminologist'. In any case, there is huge interest in the topic of the rise in crime in 2020 in US cities, for basic reasons of safety, and well as for political reasons.

Below, some basic charts...
Here, we project full year crime counts in major categories in NYC using the growth observed in the first eight months of the year, to allow comparison with previous (full) years. Image
There are major spikes in key categories (auto larceny: 59.6%, burglary: 42.9%, murders: 34.6%, as has been widely reported. But some other categories are falling (rape: -24.6%, felony assault: -3.7%) Image
Read 9 tweets
26 Aug
As Jackson Hole nears, it’s useful to recall how the Fed’s balance sheet has changed since end-2019 as well as contemplate how it might evolve in coming months including due to Powell’s review of the monetary policy framework = THREAD with charts from ChrisMarsh/@GeneralTheorist.
As is well known, Fed assets are now around USD7TN—up about USD2.8TN since year-end. This is due to (i) UST purchases (USD2TN); (ii) other securities (USD0.9TN); as well as (iii) central bank swaps which peaked at USD450BN (but are now below USD100BN).
On the liabilities side, bank reserves at the Fed (+USD1.3TN) have increased a similar amount to the Treasury General Account (+USD1.2TN) since year-end, while cash has increased USD0.2TN. Or, of dollar liquidity created, less than 50% has yet reached US bank reserves.
Read 11 tweets
24 Aug
We have probably seen the peak in WFH. Six months in, is very different than six weeks in.

Some observations...
Back in April, I was amazed how smoothly the transition to work-from-home had been working out. There were even aspects of the business (@ExanteData) which seemed to run more smoothly and effectively without a physical office.

But we are now 6-months into the process, and it feels different now. The novelty, the convenience, the flexibility is giving way to claustrophobia, disconnectedness and fatigue. Some examples:
Read 11 tweets

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