First, @ProfEmilyOster, an economist, has spearheaded the most comprehensive data collection efforts re: #SARSCoV2 spread in US schools that I know of. Correct me if I’m wrong. I’d like to see other better data sources. 2/
She’s had to do this bc of a profound abdication of authority and will from the US government but also bc no one else (including us in #epitwitter - again, correct me if I’m missing better data sources) did it... 3/
We can spar over data quality, interpretation, etc., but I believe she deserves our thanks first and foremost. 4/
Her @TheAtlantic article is written in bold concise language (which can make us academics a bit queasy), but she links to her sources and actually makes a more narrow argument than I see reflected in a quick perusal of Twitter responses 5/
Her question: Is the evidence so far that opening schools necessarily catalyzes #SARSCoV2 spread in a community? She says the evidence appears to be, No. I think that’s a reasonable interpretation of the evidence. I look forward to reading others’ counterarguments 6/
Second, on a personal note, I’ve been disheartened by some of the misogyny I’ve seen directed at @ProfEmilyOster since she’s started writing on #COVID19, including from academic women. 7/
Thankfully I’ve seen this less in my corner of #epitwitter Twitter than I see it on academic mom Facebook. A lot of, “Who does she think she is?!” “I don’t trust her motivations” “She has an agenda”... 8/
As a Black woman, I’m keenly aware that I take a risk every time I push my voice forward in the public square. For my colleagues, threats of death and assault are all too common. And so many of these threats are gendered against women in sick ways. 9/
And, from what I see just in the surface of the response to her, I’m betting that even a relatively privileged woman like @ProfEmilyOster gets more threats and vitriol than she deserves. 10/
But I haven’t seen her complain much. I haven’t seen her throw up and hands shrink back. I’ve seen her continue to collect data, respond to critics by increasing the scale and methods of her efforts. I am genuinely impressed by this doggedness. It’s no small thing. 11/
We don’t have the data we should have on schools & #COVID19. But that is, in no way, the fault of @ProfEmilyOster. To me, much of the criticism of her feels like misdirected rage & frustration that should be directed at those in charge of making sure kids & families are safe 12/
I don’t know @ProfEmilyOster and I don’t agree with everything she writes (examples: I think her writing on weight gain/obesity —> perinatal health is damaging & un-skeptical; also she’s more individualistic about risk than I am as a social epi), 13/
But overall, I find her interpretation of data transparent and rigorous. And I’m grateful that she hasn’t been cowed. In a situation with no perfect data, I’m grateful that she’s using her time and talent to give us data to dissect and argue about 14/
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1/ Maybe it’s my #epitwitter bias, but I get frustrated by the outsized attention these hospital-based viral load comparison studies (kids vs adults) get. And interpreted as children as a group highly infectious...
2/ the epidemiologic evidence of actual transmission in real-life settings (household studies, popn-representative seroprevalence studies, overall experiences of daycares and elementary schools globally) has indicated than young children lower risk than adults re: spread...
3/ the viral load studies seem much less relevant evidence...
* viral load is not live virus nor infectiousnes. For instance, viral load often stays high for a while in #COVID19 patients who are no longer infectious. Viral load is necessary but not sufficient for infectiousness
1/ Not that @jbouie needs me to pump up his work, but I will anyway. This essay is excellent for scholars who do work in U.S. Black populations but are not explicitly trained in the theory and history of racial stratification...
2/ A lot of people have learned that race is "socially constructed." But what does that mean? This article explores that question at a macro level (get ready for a quick historical tour) and at a meso/micro level in the person and story of Kamala Harris.
3/ An aside: earlier this week, I walked past one of my neighbors, a 60-something Black American women, sitting out on a swing. She was wearing a distinctively pink and green t-shirt. I told her "Congratulations!" That was it. That's what I said. We smiled. @akasorority1908
New important case study re: #SARSCoV2 transmission in kids. I wish they’d been able map out who was in what cabin. But some easy what-not-to-do takehomes: cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/6…
What not to do re: kids and #SARSCoV2
🤦🏾♀️ ~15 people sleeping/cabin
🤦🏻♀️ “vigorous” cheering & songs
🤦🏿♀️no windows open/indoor ventilation
🤦♀️ false sense of security from one-time negative PCR tests (Tests don’t detect earliest infections)
🤦🏼♀️ incomplete staff mask adherence
Other thoughts:
* a few high-risk superspeader events lead to many, many cases
* all ages were infected, including 6-10 yo
* First symptomatic case an older teenager
* outbreak seemed to start during training session of older teens and adults (I’m nervous about college openings)
.@NYTimes has done great data journalism on #SARS_CoV_2, filling gaps left by an incompetent US federal response but their recent coverage re: schools is tipping towards sensationalism & divergence from data... nytimes.com/interactive/20…
This coverage is totally freaking people out once again with the idea that preschool-aged children are super-spreaders, which is NOT TRUE!
There’s a lot we don’t know but the overwhelming weight of global data from household, school, & pop-surveillance studies indicates that small children are less likely to contract & spread this virus. Not zero risk but surprisingly low. dontforgetthebubbles.com/the-missing-li…
I’m so excited! Past couple years, I’ve wanted to sit down & structurally* deconstuct Roland Fryer’s 2019 paper on racial difs in police use of force to use as a teaching example** re: #colliderbias. Alas life got in the way...1/
HT @l_farland
*analyze “structure” in a #DAG
#ColliderBias^ is rampant in US disparities research that uses admin data like hospital claims, police records. Almost all non-random samples will differentially select by race & other imp factors
^a selection bias with a particular structure in #causalinference#DAGs
2/
This #COVID19 thread is stomach-churning. Literally I feel queasy with dismay. I am very worried about my state of North Carolina in particular... #SARSCoV2...1/
Lots of responses say, “Well, they’re just testing more volume of #SARS_CoV2 testing” (and I hope that’s the case), but the data aren’t looking great for that as an explanation. See new tests:positive case stat for the “South” in this tweet 2/
It *could* be much great precision in targeting tests to those most at-risk of #SARSCoV2 infection (which we *should* be striving to do, esp re: low-income, uninsured, Native, Black & Latinx populations shouldering disproportionate impact), but that feels like wishful thinking 3/