I did some thinking this week and wanted to put into words a topic I've thought about again recently pertaining to many of the growth/challenger companies I’ve visited over the years.
When a new model is being pursued to serve an existing market, the problems that need to solved and the bottlenecks that manifest may be completely different than what incumbents experience.
A challenger company with a slightly different twist to its service/offering may, over time, magnify these differences so that in effect it is pursuing a completely different business than incumbents.
Subtle nuances that may be invisible to consumers (and hedge fund managers/analysts), may, underneath, reveal vastly different operating models between two companies that do the "same thing"
A challenger company with a multi-year head start will have attacked hundreds of bottlenecks that incumbents won't even be aware of if/when they realize they need to pursue a new strategy to stem market share losses.
Challenger companies may end up in place where even though they are doing the same thing as the incumbents (selling widgets to consumers), they are, in effect, pursuing an entirely different business model where prior industry experience is rendered useless.
This can turn into a position of extreme strength & lasting duration when no one else knows how to build the factory or even which muscles to use to get started.
When these challenger companies accelerate growth, more deeply penetrate incumbent market share and finally begin to fund their own operations then watch out - skepticism melts & admiration grows.
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Tweet thread IV is about WWE, a company I've been following since the early 2000s. Over that time period there have been a handful of occasions where the share price veered too far from intrinsic value. Now may be one of those times.
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I apologize in advance for the length of this thread but there’s a lot to parse out & distill. All that follows is opinion, not investment advice.
I'm guessing everyone knows this business already. If not, watch Raw or Smackdown and you'll get it --- sports entertainment. It's a soap opera for men --- yes women watch the shows too.
I think this is 5 trades for 1-800 Contacts since leaving the public markets. Earnings have to be up materially since going private.
It’s going to take some time for me to add to my story of this rule breaker but mixed into all this is a fascinating case study of public vs private professional ownership.
1-800 captured much more value for its owners as a private entity than a public one and at some level that is unfortunate
Tweet storm III is about company HQ'd in Salt Lake City and a CEO that accomplished something nearly impossible. The outcome changed the way contact lenses were sold in America.
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It was a fascinating journey and I'll tell you up front that there are some interesting parallels between this company and modern day rule breakers such as Uber.
It’s a long story so I’m going to break it up into two or three parts over the coming months. I’ll do my best to tell it fairly & accurately.
A recent @NonGaap tweet about changing one’s mind reminded me of something Reed Hastings told me a decade+ ago
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I thought about Netflix obsessively back then and on one of our visits I asked him a question about the creation of original content
I observed that Netflix had superior data from consumers and that it stood to reason that the company might be able to accurately deduce the type of content that would be popular with subscribers
Late last year, I was in St. Louis and took an Uber to a dinner meeting. We started chatting with the driver and found out that she had just dropped off her son off at hockey practice
She said she lived pretty far outside of St. Louis and would drive for Uber to make extra money while her son was at practice
This tweet storm dates back to the 2003/2004 timeframe and involves a little DVD rental company called Netflix. If you read the book Netflixed, I was quoted saying:
“There's not a snowball's chance in hell that Blockbuster can do this”
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This is the story behind that quote and about one of the best investor meetings I ever had
While I was fortunate enough to have met with Reed and Barry a number of times before the company become really well followed, neither of these two, nor any senior staff for that matter, were present for this meeting