You know I'm not an uncritical fan of the UK government, but the past fortnight has really brought home how ridiculous is any comparison between Johnson's performance and Trump's 1/
Just play side by side the videos after emerging from hospital. Johnson really brought home how dangerous it is

But so much more: even if the PM did shift to economy-concerns early (in retrospect), this is nothing compared to the END LOCKDOWN idiocy we saw over the Atlantic 2/
and while our lot has been accused of hiding behind scientists - well, that's way better than actually *hiding* the scientists. Or promoting false cures. Or dissing masks

Why is the UK gov't so badly rated then? Well lots of valid reasons but.... 3/
I think it is impossible to understate how damaging Barnard Castle was and still is. When the major tool is persuading people to behave a certain way, it just poisoned the barrel of trust. It gave the media permission to change focus. It made solid this suspicion of arrogance 4/
Obviously, constant grandiosity re promises was foolish too - "world beating etc" - who cares if you're beating the world? It's not a fxxxing race. Slight bungles in communication, and a wrongheaded centralising instinct wrt data too, perhaps. 5/
This may wreck an account that could look far better on sober analysis, had they been less arrogant. Getting testing to this level is remarkable. The first economic response was praised. We may incubate the first good vaccine.

And people back the PM on further restrictions! 6/
This is why I don't regard this chatter about changing the PM's team as idle. Were I a sensible Tory Boris supporting MP I'd be looking longingly at the situation they might so easily have achieved, even with the awful stats and this horrible 2nd wave to come. After all 7/
who ordained that the strategy *must* be "screw competence, we can just win a culture war"? Was that what made Johnson one of the country's most popular politicians? No. Is it too late to change course? No, again. Are there competent Chiefs of Staff in the Tory party? Surely 8/
Anyway, Tory strategy is not my expertise. I've never been a party member. They won a big election (against Corbyn......) this way. But I just find myself surprised the back benches are not MORE restive sometimes! /ENDS

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More from @Gilesyb

26 Sep
This Economist piece is the best summary of the estimated knowledge of Covid so far and is worth showing some highlights economist.com/briefing/2020/… via @TheEconomist

1. We have had million recognised deaths, possibly there are a million more unrecorded 1/
2. We had no idea at the time but the world was probably seeing 1m infections a day at end Jan, a figure that may have peaked at 5m/day early May.

3. Probably 500m-730m have been infected so far, 6-9% of global population
4. The risk of death rises 13% with every year of age.

5. The ratio of official Covid deaths to actual Covid deaths varies. In the States, the likely figure is 30% above the official figure of 200k
Read 8 tweets
21 Sep
Obviously, the reason I ask this question is that a theme is going around some of the Usual Suspects that since there is a FPR of 1%, the rise in cases seen since August is meaningless, we're being panicked into losing our liberties ...1/ coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.1128524…
But even if the people sampled are entirely randomly chosen, the implications of the rise of cases from <1000 to >4000 (from 150k tests) is surely significant - and they are not randomly chosen (unless you think the actual prevalence was practically zero at the end of August) 2/
(in fact, if there have been a steady 1500 people reported as +ve who are -ve who should be cut from the figures, the rise from practically nothing to 2500 in three weeks sounds even more worrying) 3/
Read 6 tweets
19 Sep
How do you decide what to read? Unless you have an infinite reading capacity like @tylercowen (ie see this feedproxy.google.com/~r/marginalrev…) I can't see how one can ever plan a reading schedule that doesn't leave a greater sense of dissatisfaction at what's left unread vs finished 1/
Context: suddenly finished Roosevelt biog and tech history by David Edgerton and wondering what next, and could not feel happy with any choice. My usual categories are: 2/
Worthy, recent-ish, "relevant" books about economy, tech etc. Like the monumental Age of Surveillance waiting for me, or Sapiens, or the infinite number claiming that the tech revolution is either over- or under-hyped. You highlight lots of bits but they're not really fun ...3/
Read 8 tweets
14 Sep
A lot of this discussion of the six-person rule appears wrongly premised on the idea that it defines a safe threshold i.e. "5 people meeting is safe, 7 isn't" or "six people meeting in work is fine, socially it isn't" which naturally inspires a lot of pointless facetiousness 1/
But that is OBVIOUSLY not what they are doing, right? They (HMG) are confronted with a vast collection of behaviours that together add up to a degree of infectiousness, and they are choosing which of them to bear down upon ...2/
... as smarter people than I am have put it: they have a budget, and since they think they are through their budget they are saving a chunk of behaviours, presumably those they deem to be least important economically or in some other wise 3/
Read 5 tweets
20 Aug
Gotta theory. Brace....

As @ianmulheirn has reminded us, a house is a Thing that Provides Housing Services. Take that, discount it - the housing asset is the right to those services - and you have a kinda theory of the price. Obviously, lots of room for speculation... 1/
Then along comes Covid and house is also meaningfully valuable as a Thing that provides Workplace Services. Not all houses are valuable that way, but those that are, rise in value reflecting how the demand to work at home has risen...2/
So houses - or at least some houses - are now more valuable. They've taken some of the value that has fallen out of offices... 3/
Read 4 tweets
18 Aug
Re-reading Osborne's macro speech 2009, still astonished how badly the growth theory has dated …ervative-speeches.sayit.mysociety.org/speech/601526

Basically: fear of government debt is what holds down animal spirits. The certainty of lower rates what drives consumer spending.
Imagine if Sunak took the same approach now.

"What is your plan for increasing aggregate demand?"

"I think that "credible fiscal consolidation plan will have a positive impact through greater certainty and confidence about the future"".
Ending furlough boosts confidence?!?
&don't come back with "but rates are low now, we can take risks". WE THOUGHT THEY WERE LOW IN 2009. Osborne did too - but "The luxury of waiting for monetary conditions to tighten before embarking on fiscal tightening may not be one that we are afforded" Image
Read 6 tweets

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