wsj.com/articles/biden…
Peggy Noonan of the WSJ (one of the most widely read conservative columnists) is predicting a Biden landslide: Biden, Pence and the Wish for Normalcy. Excerpt:
"But this is also the week that journalists and politicos in Washington began wondering about
something they never expected to be thinking about this year. They are wondering if Nov. 3 won’t be a win for Joe Biden but a blowout, a landslide in a polarized country that doesn’t produce landslides anymore.
It’s not only the past week’s events, not just the polls and their
consistency, their upward tick from a lead of 6 or 7 to a lead in some polls of double digits; it’s the data about women and voters over 65.
No one will talk about it in public because they’re not idiots. Journalists don’t want to be embarrassed if they’ve got it wrong; Democrats
don’t want to encourage complacency; Republicans don’t want to demoralize the troops; and the networks have to keep everyone hopped up on the horse race. But Tim Alberta wrote a smart and hardy piece in Politico in which he said with four weeks to go, “it’s time to inch out on
a limb.” Among his impressions: There’s a lot of Trump fatigue, and it’s peaking at the wrong time for the president. Even Trump supporters “feel trapped inside a reality TV show and are powerless to change the channel.” “Trump might lose women voters by numbers we’ve never
imagined.” Every poll has always shown his deficit with women, “but what we’re seeing now, in polling conducted by both parties, isn’t a wave. It isn’t even a tsunami. It’s something we don’t have a name for, because we’ve never seen anything like it.” “When it comes to the white
, college educated women who made up a sizeable chunk of Trump’s base . . . his numbers have collapsed entirely.” We could see “the biggest gender gap in modern election history.”
No one knows what’s going to happen, and after 2016 people are rightly spooked off making
predictions. But if what a growing number of people are seeing as a real possibility happens, if we are in blowout territory, I think part of the reason won’t be political in any classic sense, or ideological, or having to do with some stupid question about which candidate you
want to have a beer with. If Joe Biden wins big, part of the reason, maybe a big part, will be simply that he is normal. Not “he’s such an accomplished legislator,” not “he’s the man of the future” or “charismatic” or “warm” or “has such a moving back story.” No. He is normal.
Oct 13, 2020 | 10:15 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Moving to Small Sized Net Long Now
*As we reached my objectives discussed three weeks ago (a gain of 350 S&P handles)
Yesterday I observed that despite the outsized gain in the Nasdaq and S&P, market breadth on the NYSE was
only 3-2 positive.
This was a warning sign to me and one of the conditions that led me to starting a short Index hedge.
This morning market breadth more than 2-1 negative with the Nasdaq flat and the S&P down a handful.
In light of the several factors discussed this morning,
I am moving back down to small in net long exposure (defined as under 20% net long):
* The recent advance has likely borrowed against future fourth quarter stock price gains.
* Again, as in past temporary tops, the performance has been lopsided towards FAANG plus (MSFT) .
Coming up shortly on @realmoney Too Much Month at the End of Money?
* I started Monday in a large net long exposure
* Yesterday was a conundrum that may have provided an opportunity
* In response to the outsized market move, I ended Monday evening in a medium sized net long
exposure
* "Nothing's Gonna Change My Clothes" - staying flexible and opportunistic within the confines of my calculus of "fair market value"
* In the last three weeks's rise of 320 S&P handles, we have likely borrowed from further fourth quarter gains
* "Get Your Tongue Outta
My Mouth Cause I'm Kissing You Good-bye" - should the markets continue to advance from here I will do some more selling
Taken from the Comments Section tonite on @realmoney
dougie •
This evening, as I reflected upon today's market action, I have to recognize that the market has fulfilled much of my optimistic and non consensus fourth quarter expectations in a relatively brief period of time
(of about three weeks).
This has served to stretch out the relation of price to "fair market value" - making the market, based on my calculus, statistically overpriced and stretched.
Moreover, the advance was once again concentrated in a handful of large cap tech market leaders
(several of which that I own) - which previously, in early September, marked a temporary market top.
Market breadth on the NYSE was only about 3-2 positive, disappointing relative to the S&P cash advance of sixty handles and the Nasdaq rise of 300 handles.
Today I sold out the
@realmoney
Oct 12, 2020 | 05:20 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Listen Up, Mouse Ears: I'm Calling an Audible on Disney
* I'm selling a portion of my position in the after hours
With Disney ($DIS) trading up $7.10 and over $132/share, I am moving my position from large- to medium-size.
To this observer, this is an outsized move relative to its actions (we will see better definition of the company's actions in early December).
In the past, some of Disney's moves have been feint-hearted -- so it is still unclear whether the company will move more aggressively by
starving broadcasting (networks and cable) and other legacy platforms at the expense of the streaming initiative.
By selling some now, I am making the bet that I will be able to buy back at lower prices -- just as I did in my ($SPY) long rental today. @jimcramer@tomkeene
Reality has begun to intrude into the Pres. contest. Despised by your own military leadership @realdonaldtrump lacks popularity and political skill. Save Fox he, contrasted to the world's strongmen, lacks power over the media (a media that has thrived during his Presidency).
As Ross Douthat writes, " A final pre-election case for understanding the president as a noisy weakling, not a budding autocrat." There is no longer concern about a wild resistance when Trump is defeated. What we are now seeing is a weak,
Kernan has explicitly and implicitly attacked me for five years.
I wrote to his boss (Mark Hoffman) on numerous occasions for an apology and for him to refrain from ad hominem attacks and repeated lies and non factual comments about me and my positions.
I tried to settle this by asking for an apology and for a guarantee that he would discontinue his crap. I have not heard back from Mark. While this is unfortunate, I am now free to speak my mind going forward. As Grandma Koufax used to tell me "Dougie he is screwing with the
wrong hombre." Many investment professionals dont publicly speak out about him (but many reach out to me and others) and his attacks because they want to have an opportunity to appear on @cnbc and @SquawkCNBC I understand their positions but I couldn't care less about appearing