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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

15 Oct

@realmoney

Opener on @realmoney
This Week Demonstrates My Incremental Tactical Approach in Responding to a Possible Topping in the Markets
* In trading and investing, you don't have to submerge - you can take a dip incrementally
* The investment mosaic is complex and ever changing - it

is also becoming less predictable (on a near term basis) because of a changing market structure that exacerbates short term moves
* A regime of heightened volatility is ideal for opportunistic and unemotional traders and investors
* The "Biden Bump" realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di… is

likely over
* I entered this week large net long in exposure and have steadily reduced by exposure to where I moved into net short exposure yesterday - as the +350 handle rise in the S&P has pulled forward the fourth quarter gains I previously expected
I try to be

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

14 Oct

@realmoney

This morning on @realmoney
Higher Stock Prices Are The Enemy of the Rational Buyer
* It has been a busy week for my portfolios
* In the last three weeks, coincident with at 350 handle rise in the S&P Index, the upside reward relative to the downside risk has materially changed

*This week, as the averages continued to advance, I moved from large sized to small sized in net long exposure
* I did not disturb any of my individual long holdings (except which rose by $7/share to over $132 after announcing a business reorganization) and I have no

@jimcramer

current plans to
* What I did was to reestablish and short positions to offset and hedge a good portion of my expanded and lengthy list of individual equity holdings @jimcramer @tomkeene @SquawkCNBC @CNBCFastMoney @carlquintanilla @Sarge986 @LizClaman @RiskReversal

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

13 Oct

@realmoney

@realmoney

Oct 13, 2020 | 10:15 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Moving to Small Sized Net Long Now
*As we reached my objectives discussed three weeks ago (a gain of 350 S&P handles)
Yesterday I observed that despite the outsized gain in the Nasdaq and S&P, market breadth on the NYSE was

only 3-2 positive.
This was a warning sign to me and one of the conditions that led me to starting a short Index hedge.
This morning market breadth more than 2-1 negative with the Nasdaq flat and the S&P down a handful.
In light of the several factors discussed this morning,

I am moving back down to small in net long exposure (defined as under 20% net long):
* The recent advance has likely borrowed against future fourth quarter stock price gains.
* Again, as in past temporary tops, the performance has been lopsided towards FAANG plus (MSFT) .

Read 6 tweets

Dougie Kass

@DougKass

13 Oct

@realmoney

Taken from the Comments Section tonite on @realmoney

dougie •
This evening, as I reflected upon today's market action, I have to recognize that the market has fulfilled much of my optimistic and non consensus fourth quarter expectations in a relatively brief period of time

(of about three weeks).
This has served to stretch out the relation of price to "fair market value" - making the market, based on my calculus, statistically overpriced and stretched.
Moreover, the advance was once again concentrated in a handful of large cap tech market leaders

(several of which that I own) - which previously, in early September, marked a temporary market top.
Market breadth on the NYSE was only about 3-2 positive, disappointing relative to the S&P cash advance of sixty handles and the Nasdaq rise of 300 handles.
Today I sold out the

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

12 Oct

@realmoney

@realmoney
Oct 12, 2020 | 05:20 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Listen Up, Mouse Ears: I'm Calling an Audible on Disney
* I'm selling a portion of my position in the after hours
With Disney ($DIS) trading up $7.10 and over $132/share, I am moving my position from large- to medium-size.

To this observer, this is an outsized move relative to its actions (we will see better definition of the company's actions in early December).
In the past, some of Disney's moves have been feint-hearted -- so it is still unclear whether the company will move more aggressively by

@jimcramer

starving broadcasting (networks and cable) and other legacy platforms at the expense of the streaming initiative.
By selling some now, I am making the bet that I will be able to buy back at lower prices -- just as I did in my ($SPY) long rental today. @jimcramer @tomkeene

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Dougie Kass

@DougKass

11 Oct

wsj.com/articles/biden…
Peggy Noonan of the WSJ (one of the most widely read conservative columnists) is predicting a Biden landslide: Biden, Pence and the Wish for Normalcy. Excerpt:
"But this is also the week that journalists and politicos in Washington began wondering about

something they never expected to be thinking about this year. They are wondering if Nov. 3 won’t be a win for Joe Biden but a blowout, a landslide in a polarized country that doesn’t produce landslides anymore.
It’s not only the past week’s events, not just the polls and their

consistency, their upward tick from a lead of 6 or 7 to a lead in some polls of double digits; it’s the data about women and voters over 65.
No one will talk about it in public because they’re not idiots. Journalists don’t want to be embarrassed if they’ve got it wrong; Democrats

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