Trinh Profile picture
12 Oct, 15 tweets, 6 min read
Thinking about aging (not just my own but the overall trend in Asia & world) & started to look into statistics of how we die, which incidentally is the title of one of my favorite books.

Death is interesting b/c it teaches us about life.

In the US, 2.8 millions die per year.
Just like in nature, a tree falls to decay, which becomes nutrient of life, to make space for other trees, our lives end otherwise it will be pretty crowded. How we live tells a bit about how we die. That's 0.86% of population that die per year (births higher so population rises)
Data is from 2017.

23% of Americans die of heart disease or 647k people per year. I suppose that has to do w/ our diet & lifestyle & the heart wears out as more mileage is added on.

Take care of the heart when u're young. 💗
Next is cancer, which kills 21.3% of Americans. Is cancer preventable? Well, hard to say but likely a combo of lifestyle, genetics & old age. We all will die so inevitably of something.

The flu kills 56k per year & 8th cause.

But suicide is high at 47k & a #10th cause of death
People tend to accept #1 & #2 causes, much easier than say the flu, which sounds benign but can be very deadly as you can see from the statistics as it is sudden vs a risk that is expected. You don't suddenly die of cancer, u got some time to prepare for it. Anyway, suicide. Why?
Before I go on to suicide, the flu is interesting is that it impacts diff people differently & deaths can be devastating other more consistent diseases in mortality.

Who is killing themselves: male & white. And that rate is rising.

Why are white men killing themselves? Despair.
Statistics on race & deaths. Obviously as white = largest share of the population then we have more deaths. Let's adjust for population & look at deaths per 100k.

Hispanic deaths much lower than white & falling & trends for black & white more similar, as in deaths not falling.
Let's look at gender. Some super worrying signs for men. Of course, hit ratios higher as you are older, no brainer.

But look at the youngest age group, 5-14 men. Mortality rising! Men from 15-44 deaths are rising!!! Also some serious depression for women too from 15-34 lately!
Elderly Americans seem to have improving mortality ratios but NOT YOUNG AMERICANS, esp men but also women for some groups.

What is going on with our young men & also basically Generation X & Millennials for women? Something is going on w/ their lives that cause this.

Worrying.
Life expectancy in America & it's not what you think in terms of white male privilege narrative (Asians not included, maybe we're too small as a share):

The best is Hispanic female 84.3, followed by white female & then Hispanic male.

Worst is black male, followed by white male.
In other words, in America, if you want to have a long life, be Hispanic & white & FEMALE.

And you don't want to be black & white MALE. That's what the statistics say for life expectancy.
Why young people, men & also to a lesser extent women:

73,990 people died of drug-induced causes, a 21% increase. White men made up the largest increase, followed by black males & females & Hispanic males.

35,823 of alcohol (white> other races)
39,773 of guns (black>other)
In other words, we have:

47,173 (suicide) + 73,990 (drug use) + 35,823 (alcohol) + 39,773 (guns)

= 156,998 deaths that could have been totally preventative & likely due to something wrong in our society as young people, esp male, dying at higher rate vs the elderly.
Bottom line: The US has a very worrying trend of young people, esp men, mortality ratios rising. That should raise flags about the society we have where more young people are dying while the elderly mortality is falling (trend wise of course as the elderly always make up of more)
Something else, remember that the #1 cause of death is heart disease? If you have heart problems, you are most likely to die from Covid as this shows here that excess Covid deaths = likely elderly people with heart + Alzheimer pre-existing conditions.

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More from @Trinhnomics

13 Oct
The best way to see America's future is to look at increasingly stressed, depressed, and lonely Americans. They used to be fit, happy, and confident. Fast forward to 2020, they're more angry, less healthy & increasingly irrational.

The center has collapsed & fringe rising. Why?
Hard to point to the reason why but I reckon it has to do with the distribution of wealth & erosion of fundamental American values in the past several decades -the destruction of small businesses, rise of large corporations, esp tech & rise of costs of living & limited mobility. Image
Chart below is nominal GDP (look at California and how it dwarfs everyone else). We have four states > 1trn in nominal GDP and 8> 0.5trn in GDP. Coastal = tend to be benefiting from US globalization, "fly-over" states less.

Let's look at this taking into account population. Image
Read 33 tweets
13 Oct
Good morning! Hong Kong got T8, basically everything shuts down except for essentials & so I waited for the minibus that never came & took a cab to work (didn't know it was T8). Nice to be at the office w/ it so empty. HK markets closed at least in the AM

Let's talk economics!🤗 Image
This week is a pretty economic week for Asia & the US ( obvs frantic regarding fiscal & politics). In Asia, today we have Bank Indonesia expected to hold.

Needs to do more! With the IDR weak, & it needs to show its independence. Gov needs to remove its effort to change mandate. Image
If you juxtapose BI (Indonesia) vs RBI (India), then u can see that both are emerging markets but RBI is doing a much better job at PR than BI (although much of it is not BI's fault but the gov itself).

Indonesia has much less gov debt, lower CPI, yet pays more for its debt. Image
Read 18 tweets
8 Oct
Didn't watch the VP debate because already up my mind (voted & just need to fax to SD). Anyway, in case you are wondering, the US is not doing that terrible economically, in fact one of the best: ISM manufacturing & services are expanding very robustly.
Here is another data point just to sober you up vs the emotional rants on Twitter: US economic surprise index & it has been onward & upward!
Everyone talks about how awesome China is doing but if you look at data like the PMI, the US is exceeding China in expansion in both services and manufacturing.

And it's especially doing well vs the Eurozone. Don't believe me, look at the below chart.
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
Indonesia is at it again, tinkering at the margin wanting “co-ordinated” independence, to have a direct say in Bank Indonesia’s policymaking. “BI’s function is just not monetary affairs but they should have a role [in] the economic growth and job creation,” Achmad said.
There is a Turkish proverb that says, "It's never too late to turn back on the wrong road."

What is the role of the government? Fiscal policy & that entails expenditure & revenue generation. Both of which have had a dismal performance. Labor productivity has fallen as FDI falls.
*Manufacturing FDI. Indonesia is one of the few Asian economies with expanding working age population but falling manufacturing FDI inflows and falling labor productivity.

Is it BI's fault? No. It's the government's fault. Now they want a quick fix by tinkering w/ monetary.
Read 14 tweets
7 Oct
Have you ever hung out at central bank websites? I highly recommend it & some are more fun than others. Defo got more useful information than Twitter and even research reports.

Was reading this paper on inflation forecasting, the Indian experience.

rbi.org.in/Scripts/Public…
Anyway, why inflation? I think inflation is like the holy grail of economic data. It tells you basically almost everything you need to know about the economy.

The weight of food, shelter, energy, healthcare (essentials vs discretionary) & how the costs of those things change.
Other than weights (developing economies tend to have more food), u can know about culture, weather patterns, distribution network etc. Culture shows up in seasonal pattern. Weather shows up in food prices. Distribution network shows up when got plenty of supply but prices rise.
Read 10 tweets
7 Oct
Back to my millennial musing. Read an article today in the WSJ (financial advice column) that didn't even mention interest rates. Wuat???

How to get a mortgage w/ student loans: author suggested a bunch of quick fixers to "look good" to get more debt!

wsj.com/articles/what-…
First, if u have a financial adviser that tells you a bunch of stuff without discussion with you the following:

a) Opportunity costs of time & money, as in interest rates
b) You ability to manage your debt

BUT emphasize your getting more debt then u should be very very waried!
This article reflects everything that is wrong about our American culture that promotes you getting more debt! Buying more things!!! (This time a house you may not afford). No where does it say, buy a house when you can afford it.

Nuts!!!
Read 10 tweets

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