PM up to explain tier system in UK...

Stressing this is not a full national lockdown... but cant accept “intolerable death toll” of letting disease rip damaging NHS.

Can’t shield elderly while letting it rip in younger population.
Very High alert level, closing pubs and bars, but leaving open retail, schools and universities - applies to Liverpool City Region from Wednesday. Gyms, betting shops also to close there.
* tier system England only, not UK.
From an Econ standpoint, clear Govt has gone out of its way to keep all retail open, and restaurants too.
Conservative West Midlands mayor Andy Street rejects the idea most of his region should be in tier 2 the “same as Manchester” with 5 times infection case rate. Particularly picks out stopping households mixing in hospitality venues...

In Tier 2, Street says Birmingham’s hospitality industry banned from hosting mixed households in the same space. But as they won’t be forced to shut also therefore ineligible for new 2/3 wage support.

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More from @faisalislam

12 Oct
Cabinet ministers sending “urgent message” to businesses about being ready for post Brexit trade changes, deal or not, acknowledging “challenging times” but saying that failing to do so risks business interruptions...…
NEW: Cabinet office/Treasury minister Lord Agnew tells MPs traders “not as ready as should be” and criticised a “head in the sand” attitude to biz preps for new post Brexit customs and regulatory border on January 1st warning them to “wake up” and that “their businesses at stake”
The minister accepted to the Treasury Select Committee that businesses were facing a “quadruple whammy” of Covid/ recession as well as repeated Brexit deadlines...
Read 6 tweets
9 Oct
Speaker of the House Pelosi, basically unprompted on that issue, says she has concerns that UK medicines regulatory standards will fall below US FDA standards, and that PM Johnson will approve a Covid vaccine/treatment, which will then be embraced by President Trump...

V specific thing to choose to bring up.... at v least the PM has a serious diplomatic issue with Dem establishment in DC (beyond Irish border/ Brexit) if they are willing to volunteer view that UK has low medicines standards, & willing to help Trump get round US approvals...
This FT story fills in some backstory about a meeting between Pelosi and the WH chief of staff about fast tracking a vaccine...

Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
NEW - government announces Treasury will cover 2/3 of pay for workers in companies obliged to shut down because of Covid restrictions from next month
Understand this is thought to cost 100s millions (per month) - which suggests at moment it will impact in hundreds of thousands. Obviously depends on what exactly is restricted - some aspects of the hospitality industry.

Govt desperate to avoid wholesale lockdown, eg not retail
Govt says not a local or sectoral furlough scheme, but it will pay majority of wages of workers who don’t work in those sectors in regions which are obliged to quite different from aim and strategy of Jobs support scheme, introduced just days ago. Ie no viability test.
Read 5 tweets
9 Oct
Big intervention from top Sage scientist - likening current situation to the delayed action in early March - shows the conflicting pressures the Govt under to act very quickly:
A very interesting World Bank study of economy/ health trade-offs across 49 countries in first half of 2020...

Total cases had biggest negative impact, more than “lockdown stringency”, then exposure to tourism.

Total tests (per million) correlated positively.

HT @birdyword
Obv correlation not causality, but clearly effective testing regimes improves the trade off between health and economy by allowing more targeted restrictions - which should be where UK is around now
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
Economy grew by 2.1% in August, the beginning of Eat Out to Help Out, slowest month of positive growth since the sharp shutdown falls, and about half expectations, 9.2% smaller than size of economy pre pandemic. Services & restaurants up. Three month growth rate now positive - 8%
“The chancellor will be setting out the next stage of the Job Support scheme later today that will protect jobs and provide a safety net for those businesses that may have to close in the coming weeks and months.” Says Treasury...
This was the GM Mayor yesterday on BBCQT demanding a “full local furlough scheme”
Read 8 tweets
8 Oct
Well - that’ll be Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross MP linesman at Wembley Image
He was indeed put on the FIFA assistant referees list by the SFA in December -…
Ross down on uefa website as linesman for Luxembourg-cyprus nations league on Saturday too - which is interesting as Lux not on exempt list, & Govt advises against all but essential travel because of Covid, so ordinarily would require isolation on return…
Read 5 tweets

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