@CottoGottfried @RealAPolitics @PollWatch2020 @davidchapman141 @LarrySchweikart THREAD - MN Early Voting/VBM Update - Lunchtime October 12, 2020. Quick update today, but will have more as we go through the week, so follow me to see more updates. (1)
(2) I checked the D/R/I numbers on ballot returns in Dakota County. Only 1,000 net vote margin banked for Biden so far here and Hillary got almost 25% of her 44K statewide vote margin here. Key county for Trump to keep even with Biden, or flip to red and it's looking good.
(3) CD2 has 36%R, 33%D in its ballot returns so far and that's key to flipping that district back to red. If it goes red, as Dakota County is its biggest population center, it would also flip that county, likely to red.
(4) The vote margin banking for Biden is only happening in CD 4 (Minneapolis) and CD5 (St. Paul). In NONE of the other six CDs is Biden banking any positive net margins at this point. More Republican votes than Democrats in those. This is not good for Biden at all.
(5) As of today, Biden has 170K net margin banked in the state. Hillary had 371K banked in 2016 and it's beginning to get tough for me to see how Biden can reach 370K to match HRC if CD2 is not a place he will bank votes. She got 96% of her vote margin banked in CD2, 4 and 5.
(6) Trump banked 328K vote margin in 2016 and 94% of that came from outside the seven county Twin Cities metro. If you assume he'll get more margins this time around. Say to 400K net vote margin banked, Biden has an insurmountable hill to climb.
(7) Also, bear in mind I found previously that new voter registrations compared to the pace set in the 2016 cycle showed -26K fewer registrations in the seven county metro area, but +52K new registrations in outstate MN outside the seven county area.
(8) If you assume that delta has to go to Trump mostly and also that the lack of third party vote parking will happen this time, Trump could be sitting on 100K votes that he gets which were NOT there for him in 2016. That may be the bottom line to how MN flips. Stay tuned
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