MN Early Voting & VBM Update -- October 14 THREAD @CottoGottfried @LarrySchweikart @TRElections @davidchapman141 @RealAPolitics @quantuspolling Follow me to get updates! RT also to send to your friends! Many thanks to all who have let me know they appreciate this analysis. (1)
(2)As of today's update, 24.5% of the vote that showed up in 2016 has now been banked by Early In Person & VBM in Minnesota. So, we can begin to get an idea of some of the math that carries us from here into Election Day.
(3) We have 720K votes in so far, and TargetSmart modeling has that breaking down D 361K, R 196K I 163K I had forecasted last week that to keep a flat rate of vote margin banking, we had to get these to 374K 196K and 161K this week So, Rs are OVER their target & Ds are under.
(4) But, if I project out what happens the next 2 weeks leading up to Election Day and assume the vote margin banking from last week holds up with Indep. going 48/45 for Biden, we would end up on ED with Biden at 666K (!!) and Trump 402K. Vote banking of 263K for Biden.
(5) So, that adds up to around 1.07M votes and leaves 1.83M votes to go on Election Day which is 63% of the vote total we got in 2016. In actuality, if we get closer to 3M or 3.1M, we could have higher % of the vote on ED.
(6) KSTP Survey USA poll from a week ago had Turnout on Election Day of 50R 24D and 24I. If we apply this to the 1.83M that shows up on ED, and Is go to Trump by 54/47, we get Trump with 1.13M and Biden with 672K. Net margin bank of 454K for Trump. Trump would win MN by 190K
(7) That's a 53%/47% win which is probably high. So, I went ahead and figured out a higher turnout both in Early/VBM and ED voting -- bump pre-ED up to 860K Biden & 481K Trump w/ 46% of total vote in before ED & 3.1M total vote. Trump still wins by 33K and 50/49 in that case.
(8)Now, consider what could happen on ED. Gallup finds 62% of Dems plan to vote before Election Day, and 28% of Repubs. That means ED would have 72%R and 38%D makeup. If I used that above in (6), a monster blowout happens - I choose to be conservative. news.gallup.com/poll/321602/ex…
(9) For the increased turnout to occur pre-ED in (8), there would need to be a monster surge in early/VBM during the last 2 weeks. We'll see if that happens. If things remain on a glide path, Biden's vote banking is already falling off the required pace - not good for him.
(10)Stay tuned here for updates. I am growing more and more confident that Trump will flip Minnesota to RED for the first time since 1972! Get out and vote!
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(11) LATE ADDITION ---- MN CD2 If Trump flips that one, he gets the state. A +1,000 vote margin by Biden last week shifted into a +4,000 vote bank for Trump today. So +5K shift there. If that trend continues, the game's over. MI/WI are to the rt of MN, so, Trump may get all 3.
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