Thread by @ChadPergram

1) The presence of a “quroum” is usually not an issue for Senate committees or the Senate itself to conduct business.

2) But issues of whether or not the Judiciary Committee has the presence of more than half of its members to constitute a quorum could impact how quickly the Senate can move the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court.

3) Moreover, the physical presence of senators is required on the Senate floor itself to vote. Senators cannot vote remotely unlike the House of Representatives. The House set up a remote voting regimen to cope with the pandemic in the spring.

4) There are 22 members of the Judiciary Committee. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) declared over the weekend that Democrats “will not supply the quorum. Period.”

5) In other words, Republicans will have to provide more than half of the members to do business at a “markup” session on Barrett’s nomination. A “markup” is where the committee sends the nomination itself to the floor.

6) The first “markup” will likely happen later in the day on Thursday, October 15. Democrats already plan to invoke committee rules which allow them to delay the markup for a week. But, there could be issues if there aren’t enough senators on present on October 15th.

7) That could delay the process further. This could be an issue if there are additional coronavirus cases or senators must quarantine.
The real need for a quorum is likely to materialize on Thursday, October 22.

8) That’s the day that Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) has long said he intends to conduct a vote on the nominee in committee.

9) Committee rules require a quorum of the 22 members of the committee be present to conduct a markup session for the nominee.

10) Let’s say hypothetically there issues with attendance are on the GOP side of the aisle due to health/quarantine. Democrats could potentially help Republicans constitute a quorum to do business. But Schumer says Democrats won’t do that.

11) It’s simple. No quorum. No markup. The Barrett nomination is stuck in committee. Senators can vote by proxy in committee. But a proxy vote cannot be a determinative vote. Otherwise, a nomination remains bottled up in committee.

12) The practice of sending Supreme Court nominees to the floor with less-than-stellar Judiciary Committee recommendations is not without precedent.
In 1991, the Judiciary Committee sent the nomination of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to the floor with “no recommendation

13) That vote was 13-1. The committee settled to “no recommendation” after it deadlocked 7-7 to give Thomas a “favorable” recommendation. In 1987, the Judiciary Committee rejected a “favorable” recommendation for Supreme Court nominee Robert Bork 9-5.

14) The committee then voted 9-5 to send Bork’s nomination to the floor with an “unfavorable” recommendation. The full Senate then rejected Bork 58-42. Bork became only the 11th High Court nominee defeated on the floor.

15) Regardless, if things go smoothly in committee, we would expect Barrett’s nomination to be on the Senate floor the week of October 25 with a vote toward the end of the week. But if the nomination hits a problem in committee, who knows?

16) If the nomination is on the floor, it’s likely Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will immediately file cloture to bring an end to debate later that week.

17) Under the provisions of “Nuclear Option II” (which lowered the bar to end debate for Supreme Court nominations from 60 to 51), we would expect the Senate to vote confirm Barrett around the end of October.

18) Now let’s consider a scenario where the Barrett nomination is on the floor – but there is another problem with health and quarantines. Senators CANNOT VOTE REMOTELY ON THE FLOOR FOR ANY REASON. They must be there in person to vote.

19) Don’t forget that McConnell chided the House earlier this summer for implementing a remote voting plan. However, McConnell even expressed concerns of late about how lax White House protocols were combatting coronavirus.

20) If senators can’t show up, Republicans could have trouble confirming Barrett. Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME) have both expressed concern about a rapid confirmation of Barrett. It appears there are only 51 GOP yeas to confirm Barrett.

21) If Republican senators are absent for any reason, that could pose a problem for confirming Barrett.