Thread by @ChadPergram

1) Just a few days ago, President Trump declared an end to coronavirus talks. But the talks kept going – despite the President’s admonition. President Trump also said there would not be an effort to do a coronavirus bill until after the election.

2) then the President abruptly switched course. Mr. Trump also said he asked Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to focus instead on confirming Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.

3) Now McConnell says the Senate will attempt to tackle some sort of “targeted” coronavirus bill sometime after October 19, but before they put the Barrett nomination on the floor toward the end of the month.

4) McConnell’s statement declares that the bill will provide “new funding for the PPP.”

5) We expect this to be a political exercise. Democrats will likely reject the effort because it’s not a big, robust bill. This is similar to the legislative exercise in early September where the Senate failed to secure enough votes for a $300 billion “skinny” coronavirus measure

6) Democrats didn’t help then and Republicans blamed Democrats for stalling the bill. Republicans struggled until the vote to get even 51 GOPers to support the plan.

7) We expect a similar experience this time: Most if not all Republicans will back some sort of still incomplete bill. But they will need to get 60 yeas to overcome a filibuster. That means help from Democrats as there are only 53 Republicans in the Senate.

8) Democrats will likely balk and each side will retreat to their corners just before the election. Vulnerable GOP senators facing difficult re-election bids need this more than Democrats do right before the election.

9) Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Susan Collins (R-ME), Martha McSally (R-AZ), Steve Daines (R-MT), John Cornyn (R-TX) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) can use a yes vote on this bill as their closing argument with voters.

10) Republicans can also weaponize the vote against Sens. Doug Jones (D-AL) and Gary Peters (D-MI) who are in tough re-election contests themselves.

11) The question is…what constitutes “targeted?” Fox knows that there were exhaustive discussions over the summer between GOP senators and the White House over what constituted “targeted” and what could actually command at least 51 votes.

12) When Fox has asked multiple sources all over Capitol Hill what would be in the bill, there was a lot of virtual shoulder shrugging. Three senior sources were caught completely off guard by McConnell’s announcement as were sources on K Street.

13) One source directed Fox to a statement published over the weekend by Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows.

14) That declaration says they’re focused “on passing legislation to provide funds for testing, vaccines, distribution and medical care. We have also focused on getting money for schools so children can go back to school safely or have the resources to study at home...."

15) "....Our focus as been on small businesses, hotels, restaurants, airlines and other industries that have been shut down or scaled back for no reason other than COVID-19. We have proposed enhanced unemployment benefits and sending direct payments to American citizens..."

16) "...We have added money for rental and mortgage assistance, child care, broadband and agriculture support.”

17) So what constitutes “targeted” in that wish list is up in the air. No one can give Fox a price tag for this prospective bill.

18) And remember that Senate Republicans handed Mnuchin and Meadows their heads on a weekend conference call after the administration floated a $1.8 trillion coronavirus package.

19) Note that there is around $130 billion in unused money from the second batch of PPP funds approved by Congress in May. That money is basically frozen as of October 1 (the start of the fiscal year) unless Congress acts.

20) So, it’s unclear at this writing if the legislation would liberate those funds or if, as McConnell writes, there would in fact be “new funding for the PPP.”

So, this exercise is rather cryptic. We don’t have details.

21) But we do know two things: This bill is going nowhere. And this is a political exercise just days before the election.