Watched the #AR02 debate. I suppose a 1-hour debate could have focused on the COVID-19 alone. Covered a lot of ground, some less informative than others. 1/
2/ Re: the TCJA, it's an albatross for Republicans. It did not ignite the economy and was a huge boon to corporations. That was before COVID-19. markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/7-…
3/ Re: ACA repeal: Paul Ryan said it was the biggest promise Republicans ever made in the modern era. Had they succeeded the # of uninsured would have skyrocketed. washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/w…
4/ Re: Voting to end preexisting conditions: Under the final bill that failed narrowly in the Senate, states would have had the authority to allow insurers to waive some of those protections, including the one requiring the same premiums be charged regardless of health status.
5/ What immediately followed was a lawsuit filed by 18 GOP AGs and 2 GOP governors to strike down the ACA in its entirety. I think the record is pretty clear when you consider both that the GOP plan was to kill the ACA and its popular provisions.
6/ I don't think that came out in the debate, however. The argument is pretty straightforward when you consider the actions/timing re: ACA. Also shows how the GOP is quick to run to court when they can win in the legislature. That undercuts a consistently bs talking point
7/ The Democratic-led House has passed supplemental COVID-19 relief numerous times. The Senate, including 2 GOP senators from Arkansas who have endorsed Hill, didn't take it up. Then Trump, supported by Hill, walked away. That was low hanging fruit beyond mishandling the virus
8/ School choice has become more popular in the pandemic, which makes sense intuitively. It's an issue that dominated the GOP convention. While Trump lacks a second term vision, he's spoken about this. federationforchildren.org/support-for-sc…
9/ But I don't know that appearing to abandon the largest public school system is as attractive politically. The US Chamber is trending left, for ex., while the AR State Chamber had a weird incestuous relationship w/ key lobbying group & state board of education for a while.
10/ Nancy Pelosi's FAV/UNFAV avg.: -15.8 per RCP. Mitch McConnell: -23.2. Trump: -12. She's not the villain GOP wants her to be especially as 1st term Dems are on fairly safe ground & Dems will likely expand their caucus.
11/ The Dems record in House this cycle is defensible in AR: voting access & ethics reform, background checks, pay equity, lowering prescription drug prices, banning offshore drilling, marijuana banking, DACA, $15 minimum wage tampabay.com/opinion/2019/1…
12/ A lot of those measures had bipartisan support. Hill's claims of bipartisanship are worth examining. Here's how his voting sorted out in 2019. Considerable alignment with US Chamber and Americans for Prosperity govtrack.us/congress/membe…
13/ In the context of COVID-19 I'm not sure how much traction social issues like abortion will impact voters beyond one-issue voters who are already with Hill. Felt like a base play at the end, which I get.
14/ Hill has to grapple with suburban women being turned off by Trump. The disparity among that demographic is considerable meanwhile Biden's gaining ground among men. The Barrett nomination has galvanized Democratic women. newsweek.com/amy-coney-barr…
15/ I continue to think the premature victory lap at the White House after the ACA repeal is the political mistake we'll talk about if Hill loses. Gloating about taking something away from people that may be the difference btw life & death or financial ruin is not a winner
16/16 But that's just an if. Hill's negative ads may work. As I've said plenty of times, there's no Trump record to run on, no coattails. Besides, many thousands more people will see their ads & mailers vs this debate. Early voting begins in one week.
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