An annotated timelapse of how the #coronavirus incidence evolved over the last few months across all European countries.

What can we learn from it?

(Map and data gathered by @innouveau . Annotations mine. Thx for the link @RichardBurghout )
[1/7]
For me the country that stands out is Germany: How despite being in the very middle of Europe, highly connected, dense, surrounded by countries with massive prevalence, it's still doing pretty well.
[2/7]
It's no East Asian country, but it's also not an island with SARS/MERS experience. And it's not easy to control the virus when people from every other EU country — with few proper measures — are bringing you infections.

So how did Germany do it?
zeit.de/2020/33/corona…
[3/7]
Germany has amazing leadership, with people like @c_drosten and Angela Merkel leading the country with the right measures.
1. Testing before anybody else
2. Good contact tracing, isolations / quarantines when necessary
3. Prioritize cluster busting like in Japan

[4/7]
4. Masks. Ppl do what they need to do without whining.
5. Few or no restrictions for outdoors activities
6. Lockdowns only when really necessary. Prioritize places that are low cost - high reward

reopen.europa.eu/en/map/DEU

[5/7]
7. Strong Fence. Ppl from many countries can't come. For the rest, ppl from high-incidence areas must quarantine on arrival for 14d
iatatravelcentre.com/world.php

[6/7]
8. Adopt new learnings as soon as they're available. Eg, require better ventilation after learning about aerosol transmission, prioritize cluster busting after learning about the high dispersion of the virus, rapid testing, reduced quarantines...

What else?
[7/7]
This is part of a new article.
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More from @tomaspueyo

5 Oct
Many ppl focus on @realDonaldTrump ‘s chances of life vs death. I hope—like all those infected—that he lives. But I’m not only concerned about that. I’m also worried about mental health.
Thread

The 1918 flu epidemic was known to cause mental issues. From The Great Influenza:
[1
“The 1918 virus did seem to reach the brain. The war fought on that battlefield could destroy brain cells and make it difficult to concentrate, or alter behavior, or interfere with thinking, or even cause temporary psychosis.”
[2/
“If this occurred in only a minority of cases, the virus’s impact on the mind was nonetheless real.”

This might have impacted the US’ negotiations after WWI, and indirectly caused WWII. Wilson, the US president during the war, negotiated the peace.
[3/
Read 12 tweets
30 Sep
Starlink, the satellite constellation from @elonmusk ‘s @SpaceX, will change the world.

It will attack mobile telecom monopolies around the world and they won’t be able to compete.

Summary thread of the article below [1/]

caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2019/11/02/sta…
SpaceX has an developed an unfair advantage: by dramatically reducing the cost of space launches, they can afford to send satellites to space at a price nobody can compete with.

It’s so low that few other companies can replicate it easily, soon
[2/
So SpaceX will send hundreds of thousands of satellites to orbit, covering all earth with enough bandwidth and at a low enough cost that it will be much much cheaper than cable for billions of people, starting with rural and suburban areas.
[3/]
Read 5 tweets
20 Sep
RBG's death highlights one failure of US democracy

The fact that 1 death can substantially influence the lives of generations in a 330M country shows the system doesn't work.

In a world where things evolve ever faster, we need systems that can keep pace.
[1/6]
Part of the pbm is in the selection process. Presidential appointment + senate approval are only as legitimate as electoral college + senate representativeness.

Senate representativeness depends on # of states, which does not seem reasonable

[2/6]
The current # of states is heavily partisan. The Dakotas, Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and Washington were admitted in the union to control the gov, and to this day biases the gov towards rural voters.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
[3/6]
Read 6 tweets
16 Sep
How is hard work against the #coronavirus wasted without a good Fence? Thread

One of my fav parts of the Fences article is visualizing this. The US is perfect: states took all the measures. Some harder than others, but few adopted good fences

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
[1/
As a result, you get states with expensive lockdowns that were completely wasted by travelers bringing infections from outside... during the lockdown!

Connecticut is one of the best examples. This happened during its lockdown (represented as a yellow border with stripes inside)
You can see the spread going from left — close to NY — to right as days pass, despite the lockdown.

Obviously, correlation is not causation. Maybe it's caused by some other factor?

That's why we went looking for more states — and more smoking guns.

Next one: New Mexico
[3/
Read 17 tweets
15 Sep
Yom Kippur starts in 12 days. How can it be done safely?

I am not an expert, but a Jewish friend tells me ppl pray and sing for 3h in a synagogue one evening and 10 more hours the next day.

That's a recipe for disaster.
medium.com/@tomaspueyo/sh…

[1/5]
As we know, lots of ppl confined for a long time in the same place, talking, singing, praying is the perfect breeding ground for the coronavirus.

It led to 1000s of cases early on in SK. How 75% of a choir in Washington State got infected early on.

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…
[2/5]
There are dozens and dozens of outbreaks that started in churches. the massive Navajo Nation one is a good example.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…

So what can we do?

[3/5]
Read 5 tweets
7 Sep
Lesson on Case Fatality Rates for Spain and France: It's going to go up.

2 months ago, I predicted that the US Case Fatality Rate was going to stop going down, and was going to grow instead.

Back then, it had been going down for months (Apr-14 to Jul-03)
[1/
It started going slightly up at the beginning of July.
Some ppl thought it was a fluke, but this analysis led me to believe it was the beginning of a trend and CFR was just about to go up consistently.

Sure enough, it did. From 1% to ~2.5% today. Image
Read 4 tweets

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