Thread by @Crazynaval

7500 crores.. number of average ciggies smoked in india (from ITC)..

80% of market share of legal ciggi market, which it self is 75%

Total ciggies smoked per annum: about 14000 crore!!

Cig is just 10% of tobbaco used :)

Don't worry, tobbaaco money is not going any where :)

Which food company has closest association with farmers after government of India and amul

#ITC

Who has access to largest set of farmers?
17 states, 35000 village, 40 lakh farmers

Approx number of aata packets sold in an year: 15-17 crore bags!!

Who has the capacity? Manufacturing capabilities?
Who has the capacity to source that much wheat?
Who has the capacity to perhaps print their own carry bag
Who has a better cost control? Could rule exports?

Capacity to scale up branded health conscious aata segment?

Premiumization capabilities for a daily use product

Which food company has built and commissioned 9 ICML in last few years?

Aashirwaad brand extension in food possibilities are enormous

Ghee is 225000 crore market and will take ages to become main stream

Possibilities of aashirward rice.. matter of time in my view..

13 years of metro life for me, haven't bought loose aata or rice yet..

#changeinbehaviour

While ITC may do some restructuring around hotels but important to understand what changed in last 10 years (obviously not withstanding covid impact)

- online penetration from near zero to almost 70-80%
- ease of discoverability
- acceptance to spend on luxury

Who could benefit from moving weddings from grand affairs to small gatherings at a five star because of covid

Who is building luxury hotels any more?
Who has the testbed of testing their product with millions of customers..

Yes hotel is controversial but india has just started

Who has the mettle/ fire power to communicate safety and hygiene at scale as well as maintain

While hotel business may stay depressed for a while but hotel fits in to serving an aspirational india

And some one cried over 6k crore of cash flow out of 100k crore of cash flows on hotels

Look at the trajectory of margins before covid and see what they had started doing at scale

Who is gaining share in paper market
Who will get benefit if chinese imports go down
Who is working with farmers to now grow more wood for pulp requirements
Who has biggest capex plan in paper unit

Perhaps ITC

Who will or can have better control on all products

FMCG - grow the raw material/ add value and convert in to product/ food packaging/ carton packaging

What a fantastic example of backward integration till the root level.Only thing left in the root is to add seed business

Would distribution costs per unit increase or decrease in the next decade ?

If railways is improving
GST unclogging highways
Roads being built till villages
Fuel prices not increasing

out of 869 paper mills in india, only 467 are operational. chinese imports have more to do .. does the current stand off change that..
potentially yes

INDIA Is the largest growth market for paper..

who wins in long term? the one closest to farmers.

in the hindsight or may be a potential foresight

ITC is one of the biggest play around FMCG and FARMERS..

and last but not the least

first step towards countering counerfeit ciggies

Narendra Modi last year ratified the FCTC protocol towards India’s commitment towards fighting illegal tobacco trade. “The idea is whatever is sold, should be sold through proper channels

Implementation of tax stamps has been one of the most effective measures and the experiences in many countries demonstrate that a comprehensive approach to address illicit tobacco markets is most effective.

In Bangladesh, the illicit trade in cigarettes was reduced from 20% in 2000 to 1.2% in 2009 and in Turkey, tobacco tax revenues rose by 31.5% within the first year of implementing the system, he further added.

financialexpress.com/industry/alert…