Thread by @tconnellyRTE

Following this morning's briefing of EU foreign + Europe ministers by @MichelBarnier in Luxembourg here's a sense of expectations ahead of this week's #EUCO:

2/ The EU wants to dedramatise the mtg: ie, this was @BorisJohnson's deadline not the EU's. So far there are Council draft conclusions on Covid 19, Africa + climate - but nothing on Brexit. That won't come till after a morning mtg of EU ambassdors and is expected to be bland

3/ Barnier said there has been movement on the level playing field (LPF), including state aid, and referenced @DavidGHFrost's statement to the House of Lords EU Cttee last week as movement

4/ On state aid Barnier's Task Force is looking at a toolbox with four elements: high level principles, a strong national regulator, dispute settlement mechanism + "autonomous retaliatory" measures both sides can trigger instead of arbitration if urgent action needed

5/ Such retaliation could be "horizontal", ie if there's a grave breach one side could take retaliatory measures not just with tariffs but alternatively on road haulage, aviation - if extreme responses were deemed necessary

6/ Barnier indicated it's unclear if the UK side are willing to go for this toolbox approach

7/ However, Barnier was "downbeat" on fisheries. Sources say 10 days ago he believed fish ministers would give him discretion to move on fish, but coastal states have become much more hardline and this seems to be reflected in Barnier's current thinking...

8/ ie, he is said to have told the GAC that EU fishermen "must be respected and can’t be just tossed aside as if they didn’t matter," acc to one source.

9/ It's understood France's Europe minister @CBeaune was very hardline on fisheries. He is said to have told the meeting the French cabinet had discussed no deal planning yesterday

10/ That's not to say there is no optimism about a deal. "People are being cautious. There is some more optimism around now over the possibility of a deal, but given there’s limited time left given the number of [outstanding] issues," says a source

11/ Fisheries seem to be the area where there is deepening pessimism. Coastal member states are concerned about getting into a situation where fish is left to the end of the negotiations and the EU side end up getting a bad deal...

12/ "Barnier is taking that on board at the moment. I don’t think we’d want to play the British at their game and leave fish till the end, and fishermen get a very bad deal. I don’t think Barnier wants to go down that road again," says source

13/ On the Internal Market Bill, Barnier appears to hope that the UK would itself opt to remove the offending clauses rather than have it presented to them as a condition for the European Parliament to ratify the treaty, should agreement be reached on an FTA

14/ So, the summit gets underway on Thursday. Despite the probable desire by @eucopresident Charles Michel to dedramatise the Brexit issue as far as possible, all eyes will be on @EmmanuelMacron (and other coastal states) on the fish issue...

15/ At today's GAC meeting, it's understood there was unity on the fish issue. "Nobody was saying fish is not important", says source

ENDS